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유라시아의 민주주의: 통합적 설명모형의 모색과 색채혁명

Democracy in Eurasia: Explaining Color Revolutions

엄구호
극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2010.03|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제26권 제1호|pp. 33-68|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2010.26.1.002

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참고문헌

키워드

민주주의러시아RussiaEurasia유라시아Democracy민주화DemocratizationColor Revolution색채혁명
주제분류정치외교학

초록

본 연구는 두 가지 문제제기에서 출발한다. 첫째, 유라시아 국가들의 민주주의 특성인 불완전 민주주의가 현실정치에서 비민주체제로 안정화되었을 때, 불완전 또는 전환적 형태의 민주주의로 다루는 것은 적절치 않다. 둘째, 기존 연구는 이행론이 기초한 행위자적 접근과 근대화 가설이 기초한 구조적 접근으로 대별해 볼 수 있는데, 각 접근은 상호 장단점이 있으므로 통합적 사고의 모형을 모색해야 한다. 특히 유라시아에서 나타나는 민주화 방식은 동구의 엘리트 간 합의 방식보다는 혁명 방식이기 때문에, 혁명이라는 집단행동의 과정 설명과 민주화 설명의 이론적 틀이 부합해야 한다는 것이다. 이런 맥락에서 첫째, 민주화의 단계와 체제 성격을 연계하여 유라시아의 민주화를 진단 및 유형화하고, 둘째, 기존의 방대한 유라시아 민주화 연구를 체계적으로 평가하여 색채혁명의 과정을 설명할 수 있는 이론적 모형을 모색하며, 셋째, 이러한 이론적 모형에 기초해서 유라시아의 민주화와 색채혁명을 평가해 보는 것이 본 연구의 목적이다. 본 연구가 제안하는 구조적 접근과 행위자적 접근의 통합 접근과 색채혁명의 추세-도구-촉발모형의 결합은 매우 의미 있다고 생각된다. 다만 이 모형은 매우 유연성이 있음을 강조하고자 한다. 구조적 변수와 행위자적 변수가 매우 다양하며 유라시아의 상황은 가변적이기 때문에 계속적인 실증적 연구를 통해 보다 적실성 있는 설명변수를 개발해야 할 것이다.

Abstract

This study begins with raising following two questions. First, when an 'imperfect democracy,' a salient trait of Eurasian countries, has been stabilized into a non-democratic system in real politics, counting it as an incomplete or transitional democracy is not appropriate. Second, while the existing literature is broadly divided into 'transitology' based on agency approach and 'modernization hypothesis' from structural approach. This study argues that these two seemingly irreconcilable streams should be bridged by continuous efforts to develop a synthetic theoretical model, because each approach respectively has its own pros and cons. Especially this study pays an attention to that explanations on collective action of revolution can be harmonized with theoretical framework of democratization, since democratic transitions in Eurasia were proceeded by revolutions rather than through pacts among the elites in Eastern Europe. In this context, this paper purposes first, to diagnose and classify democratization in Eurasia by connecting the stage of democratic transition and features of political system, second, to develop a theoretical model, which can explain the process of color revolution, based on systematic reviews of the existing studies on democratization in Eurasia, and thirdly, to evaluate democratization and color revolution in Eurasia on the basis of the above theoretical model. While the attempt of this study to combine structural approach, agency approach, and 'Trend-Instrument-Trigger' model for color revolution would be very meaningful, it should be noticed that this model has a great flexibility and expandibility. Since structure variables and agency variables are very multifarious and the situation in Eurasia is also quite changeable, there is a need to develop more appropriate explanatory variables through further experimental studies.

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