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중국의 부상, 세계질서의 위기, 그리고 동아시아: 한국의 전략

The Rise of China, the Changing World Order, and East Asia: A Korean Perspective

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주제분류정치외교학

초록

중국의 부상과 함께 세계적 차원에서 강대국 간 권력투쟁, 권력투쟁의 군사화, 약소국의 객체화를 특징으로 하는 권력정치의 재현을 경고하는 담론이 무성하다. 그것이 민주주의, 권위주의 국가를 막론하고 나타나는 배타적 민족주의의 추세와 맞물려, 21세기 국제정치의 암울한 미래를 점치는 위기담론도 있다. 이러한 위기담론은 한편으로는 위정자들의 주의를 환기시키기 위한 경고로서의 성격이 있다. 다른 한편으로는 21세기 세계질서의 편중성, 즉 미국의 압도적 위세와 과학기술의 혁명적 진보 속에 신자유주의적 세계화의 과도한 진척에 대한 국제정치적․국내정치적 자기조정의 과정으로 볼 수 있다. 때문에 지나치게 경동할 일은 아니라고 본다. 다만 중국의 부상이 일어나고 있는 지리적 위치가 동아시아고, 또한 북한의 군사적 도전이 워낙 거세기 때문에 한국에 대해서 제기할 수 있는 도전은 결코 과장이 아니다. 이러한 도전에 능동적으로 대처하여 발전을 위한 계기로 삼는 전략적 지혜와 국가전략의 개발이 필요하다.

Abstract

The rise of China may has triggered a change in international structure and behavioral pattern, or at least a discourse as such. And the discourse is generally tilted toward the pessimistic end, a system-wide hegemonic war or competition, and the return of brute power politics. Such a turn takes place in the broad context of the retreat of liberal world order, where exclusive nationalism eclipse open internationalism. From a different angle, however, such changes can be seen as a natural adjustment process by which the excesses of the power and role of the United States in a unipolar world on the one hand, and globalization of world economy on the other are corrected, hence should not be received with too big an alarm. Meanwhile, the changes in East Asia have a potential to generate a full scale power politics with deep security dilemma among major actors. North Korea’s challenge with its weapons of mass destruction poses both a challenge to trigger and an opportunity to dampen such a spiral.

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