미얀마 군사정부의 장기집권 토대와 책략: 1988~2008년
Military Government's Bases and Strategies for Status Quo in Myanmar During the Period of 1988-2008
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이 논문은 1988년 ‘88 민주항쟁’ 이후 2007년 ‘샤프론 혁명’에 이르기까지 지난 20년간 미얀마 군사정부가 아래로부터의 불신과 거부에도 불구하고 장기집권을 할 수 있었던 것은, 1)군사정부의 토대이자 ‘자원’으로서의 막강한 물리력, 2) 땅쉐-마웅에-킨늉 간의 3두체제를 통한 ‘정부로서의 군부’의 결속 확보, 3) 후견수혜망을 통한 ‘제도로서의 군부’의 조합적 이익 보장, 4) 군사정부의 대야당 및 대국민 책략의 성공으로부터 가능한 것임을 밝히고 있다. 특히 미얀마 군사정부는 야당에 대한 집요한 탄압과 통제를 유감없이 발휘하는 가운데서도 한편으로는 아웅산 수지 등 야당과의 대화 가능성을 시사하면서 또 다른 한편으로는 신헌법제정 국민회의를 통해 위로부터의 정치개방 가능성을 기대하도록 하는 책략을 통해 군사정부의 지속을 꾀해 나갔다. 이 논문은 2010년 총선을 통해 제도권 정치사회의 출현을 유인하고, 이를 토대로 장기적이고 지속적인 진지전의 방식으로 미얀마의 정치 자유화․민주화를 추진해 나가는 것이 보다 더 유용한 현실적 방책인 것으로 제안하고 있다.
Abstract
Myanmar experienced the failures of massive popular protests from ‘1988 democratization movement’ to 2007 'Saffron Revolution.' The military government has kept the modernized military power along with the relatively well-unified solidarity, which could be secured through the tripartite arrangement among junta leaders such as Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt. The various patron-client networks between the junta leaders and the military officers guaranteed the corporate interests and privileges of the military as an institution. Especially the military government successively responded to the demands for the political opening through maneuvering of the sporadic dialogue gestures between the junta leaders and Aung San Suu Kyi as well as the National Convention for drafting the state constitution. This article proposes a realistic suggestion that Myanmar had better carry out general election slated in 2010 which would hopefully promote political capacities of the civil society because the assembly with the constitution will bring about the political society to help change the military rule gradually.
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