중국의 대(對)한반도정책: 책임대국과 시진핑의 대북정책 딜레마
China's Policy toward the Korean Peninsula: A Responsible Power and Xi Jinping's Dilemma with North Korea
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2012년 11월 개최된 중국공산당 제18차 전국대표대회에서 향후 10년을 이끌어갈 중국의 신지도부가 구성되었다. 제5세대 지도부는 향후 집권 10년 동안 중국의 강대국으로의 부상을 완전히 실현해야 하는 중차대한 임무를 부여받고 있으며, 자신만의 정책노선은 임기 2기를 맞이하는 2017년 제19차 전당대회를 전후로 구체화될 가능성이 높다. 그 이전까지는 기존 노선의 충실한 집행 속에서 권력기반을 다지는 데 치중할 수밖에 없기 때문이다. 큰 틀에서 보면, 시진핑도 다른 앞선 지도자들처럼 미국 국력의 우위하에 미국에 대한 직접적 도전과 본격적인 군사력 경쟁을 자제하면서, 장기적인 경제발전에 집중하는 대전략을 유지할 것이다. 이에 따라 한반도 지역 내 평화와 안정을 최상의 정책목표로 지속할 것이다. 구체적으로 중국의 대한반도정책은, 미중관계의 협력적 기조유지, 남북한 등거리정책 지속 즉 한중관계 발전과 북중 경제협력 강화 및 북한체제 지원, 북핵문제와 6자회담, 해양 영토분쟁과 민족주의 분출의 수위 조절 등의 기조를 나타낼 것이다. 한국은 중국과 공조하여 핵실험, 미사일 발사 등 북한의 도발행위에 대한 국제사회의 제재를 강화하는 한편, 북핵문제의 외교적 해결을 위해 포괄적 협상 방안과 구상에 대한 이니셔티브를 쥐고 미국, 중국과의 공조를 강화해야 한다.
Abstract
China's new leadership takes the first step toward ten years' tenure at the 18th Communist Party Congress in November 2012. The fifth generation leadership takes great responsibility of leading China as a global rising power and its own feature of policy will be substantiated at the second five-year term which will start from the 19th Party Congress in 2017. Before then, Xi Jinping as a new leader inherits the legacy of policies successively while consolidating his political power. Like his predecessors, Xi will concentrate his efforts on long-term economic development guided by grand strategy abstaining from military competition with the U.S. In parallel with it, China's current policy toward the Korean Peninsula will be sustained to foster peace and stability in a foreseeable future. Concretely, China's Korea Policy will be embodied through such the specific purposes as maintaining cooperative relationship with the U.S., distant policy toward two Koreas, further development of Sino-South Korea relationship, supporting North Korea's regime by strengthening of Sino-North Korea economic relationship, keeping six party talks for resolving North Korea's nuclear issues, and control of maritime territorial disputes and nationalism. When North Korea would not give up nuclear weapons and worsen the crisis, China might rethink strategic value of North Korea as a burden. As for the implication for South Korea, strategic cooperation with China will be more indispensably needed to contain North Korea's brinkmanship and resolve North Korea's nuclear issues and its regime itself.
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