관광수요결정모형 추정시 0의 응답을 포함한 모형에 관한 연구: 도서(島嶼)관광을 사례로
A Study on Determinants of Demand Models Including 0 Responses: A Case Study of Island Tourism
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The purpose of this study is the identification of determinants and demand models for island tourism. For this study, a simple Poisson, a negative binomial distribution, a zero-inflated Poisson and a zero-inflated negative Poisson model were applied. To select the appropriate demand model, an overdispersion test for Poisson model were applied and estimated negative binomial distribution model(NB) and test if the heterogeneity parameter alpha is significant by using the t-test; a significant alpha suggests that unobservable heterogeneity accounts for dispersion, statistic and heterogeneity parameter alpha. And also the author compared the zero-inflated negative binomial model(ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial model's(ZINB) Vuong statistics. As a result of test, NB model was selected as an appropriate model for island tourism. The author found that socioeconomic variables such as age and education variables are positively related to the island tourism demand model. Ultimately, these survey results will be used as part of a marketing information database to develop a marketing strategy and establish policy for island tourism.
Abstract
The purpose of this study is the identification of determinants and demand models for island tourism. For this study, a simple Poisson, a negative binomial distribution, a zero-inflated Poisson and a zero-inflated negative Poisson model were applied. To select the appropriate demand model, an overdispersion test for Poisson model were applied and estimated negative binomial distribution model(NB) and test if the heterogeneity parameter alpha is significant by using the t-test; a significant alpha suggests that unobservable heterogeneity accounts for dispersion, statistic and heterogeneity parameter alpha. And also the author compared the zero-inflated negative binomial model(ZIP) and zero-inflated negative binomial model's(ZINB) Vuong statistics. As a result of test, NB model was selected as an appropriate model for island tourism. The author found that socioeconomic variables such as age and education variables are positively related to the island tourism demand model. Ultimately, these survey results will be used as part of a marketing information database to develop a marketing strategy and establish policy for island tourism.
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