중·동유럽제국의 EU가입과 경제개혁이 FDI에 미친 효과
The Impact of Joining the EU and Economic Reform on inward FDI in Central and Eastern European countries
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본 연구에서는 먼저 중·동유럽제국에 대한 FDI유입의 변화추이를 살펴본 후 중·동유럽제국의 EU 가입이 FDI 유입에 어떠한 영향을 주었는지 파악하기 위하여 모형을 설정하여 실증분석을 시도하였다. 중·동유럽제국의 FDI유입추이를 보면 EU 가입 이후 중·동유럽제국의 1인당 FDI 유입액은 561$로서 가입이전대비 3배 이상 크게 증가하였다. GDP 대비 FDI유입수준도 가입이후 2.5배로(가입이전대비) 증가하여 매우 높은 수준에 있다. EU가입이후 FDI 유입액이 크게 증가한 결과 실제로 EU가입이 FDI에 주요한 결정요인으로 작용했는지 실증분석을 시도하였다. 중·동유럽제국의 EU 가입의 FDI효과를 추정하는데 있어 EU 가입이외에 GDP, 경제개방도, 경상수지 등 다양한 요인을 고려하면서 특히 EU 가입과 경제개혁의 효과에 중점을 두었다. 중·동유럽제국 10개국에 대한 횡단면자료와 1993년부터 2012년까지 20개년도의 시계열자료로 구성된 패널자료를 사용하여 분석한 결과 EU 가입과 경제개혁은 중·동유럽제국의 FDI 유입에 긍정적인 영향을 준 것으로 나타났다. 또한 FDI의 전통적인 요인들인 시장규모, 경제개방도 등도 FDI 유입에 대한 영향력이 매우 높게 나타났다.
Abstract
Central and Eastern European countries have accumulated higher levels of per capita FDI stock than other developing countries after joining the EU. This paper focuses on the determinants of foreign direct investment inflows in Central and Eastern European countries with a view to addressing whether joining the EU and economic reform have had an impact on FDI inflows. We use a panel of 20 annual observations (1993-2012) over 10 Central and Eastern European countries. The main empirical findings are as follows. First, our results indicate that joining the EU and economic reform had statistically significant and positive effects on FDI in Central and Eastern European countries. Second, we find empirical support for the traditional variables. GDP, OPEN had positive signs and quantitatively important effects on FDIThis study is distinguished from previous studies in that we have estimated the actual impacts of the EU membership of Central and Eastern European countries on FDI using a panel data set for a longer period covering the post-accession period.
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