본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

A Study on Economic Effects on Turkish Accession to the EU Based gravity and CGE Models

이종원|이영기
한국유럽학회 (The Korean Society Of Contemporary European Studies)|2005.09|유럽연구 (The Journal of Contemporary European Studies)|제21호|pp. 27-54

1

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

관세동맹Gravity EquationCGE Model중력방정식연산가능일반균형모형Custom Union중동부유럽10개국유럽연합15개국CEEC-10EU-15
주제분류지역학

초록

터키의 EU와의 관세동맹의 경험은 관세수입 감소에도 불구하고 긍정적으로 평가된다. 2002년과 2003년에는 괄목할만한 수출 증가 실적을 달성하였는데, 이것은 관세동맹의 결과 강화된 제조업의 경쟁력 때문으로 분석된다. 1963년 터키의 EEC가입 이래 오래 지연되어 왔던 터키가입 협상이 드디어 금년 10월부터 시작될 예정이지만, 그 과정에서 EU내의 심각한 논쟁이 예상된다. 터키가 EU에 가입함으로써 확대화된 단일시장의 가입에 따른 효과를 장기적이고 무역적인 측면을 중력방정식을 이용한 논문을 중점적으로 분석하였다.중력방정식을 이용한 추정 결과를 보면 1999-2001년 기간동안 평균 185억 달러 보다 41% 증가하는 261억 달러로 확대화의 충격에 따른 잠재적인 경제적 크기의 증가로 나타나며, 궁극적으로는 450억 달러 무역량만큼을 증가할 것으로 평가된다또한 CGE모델을 이용하여, 터키가 유럽연합에 가입하여 단일 시장으로 확대되는 경우를 시뮬레이션해 보면 학자들 간의 정도의 차이는 있어도 합치된 의견은 다음과 같다.터키의 확대된 EU 단일 시장으로의 가입은 터키 경제에 정의 효과를 준다. 국민소득은 40억 달러 이상 증가할 것이나 반면에 장기적으로 GDP는 1% 이내에 이를 것이다.EU-15 개국과 CEEC-10국가의 경우는 가입에 따른 상대적인 편익은 미미하다터키에서의 가장 큰 편익은 직물 의류분야에 괄목할만한 증가로 나타날 것이다. 끝으로 터키의 EU 가입은 기존 EU-15국과 CEEC-10국가에게 미치는 경제적 영향은 미미하나 터키 경제에는 큰 경제적인 이점을 가져다 줄 것이다.

Abstract

The Turkish experience of the Customs Union with the EU has been positive, even though it reduced the tax revenue. Outstanding export performance has been achieved in 2002 and 2003, and it is in part due to the newly acquired competitiveness of Turkish manufacturing industries that was forced upon them by the increased competition after Turkey joined the Customs Union with the EU. The negotiations for Turkish entry are to begin in October this year after long delay since 1963 when it became an association member of the EEC. However, there are still serious debates in the EU. These days, the possible enlargement of the European Union with Turkey is a major issue of discussion. Despite progress in the economic integration between the EU and Turkey, a number of Europeans seem reluctant to accept Turkey as a member of the EU But people also fear the economic implications of Turkey’'s accession to the EU. In particular, Turkey would become a net recipient of EU funds, which implies a net cost for existing member states. In addition, people in Western Europe fear massive immigration flows from Turkey and cheap imports at the cost of workers and producers in the EU. This paper concentrates on the economic implications of the Turkish accession to the EU. How much will the accession of Turkey benefit or cost European producers and consumers in terms of productions? Which sectors will gain and which will lose? The forecast is based on estimation of a gravity function for trade within the EU-15. The gravity function has been used to explain the volume of bilateral international trade In addition study, we use a CGE model that incorporates the specific structure of the Turkish economy to assess the impact of its accession to the EU. Moreover, we pay due attention to what can be expected from further steps in the integration process.

참고문헌 (39)

  1. "A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation", 69, pp.106~116 (1979)
  2. ""A survey of Turkey", pp.12~13 (2004)
  3. "The Costs and Benefits of Eastern Enlargement", eco(mic policy), pp.127~170 (1997)
  4. "Finnish and Swedish business cycles in a global context University of Lund" (2000)
  5. "the Linder Hypothesis and the determinants of bilateral intra-industry trade", pp.1216~1229 (1990)
  6. "The Impact of Eastern Enlargement on Employment and Labour Markets in the EU Member States" (2000)
  7. "The Economics of Immigration", 32, pp.1667~1717 (1994)
  8. "The Economic Benefits from Immigration", 9, pp.3~22 (1995)
  9. "Determinants of Bilateral Trade Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World?" (1998)
  10. "Four Futures of Europe" (2003)
  11. "The economics of European cohesion policy"
  12. "The economic impact of enlargement DG for Economic and Financial Affair" (2000)
  13. "On Theories Explaining the Success of the Gravity equation" (2002)
  14. "Turkey toward EU accession"
  15. "Using the gravity equation to differentiate among" (1999)
  16. "Wheatley"Migration Theories and Evidence: an Assessment", pp.159~198 (1996)
  17. "The Turkish Economy before the EU Accession Talks" (2005)
  18. "Wage and Mobility Effects of Trade and Migration" (1996)
  19. "Economic Implications for Turkey of a Customs Union with the European Union", pp.861~870 (1997)
  20. "The Structure of Foreign Trade" (1998)
  21. "Complying with EU Environmental Legislation" (2000)
  22. "The Accession of Bulgaria Romania and Turkey into the EU and its Economic Impact on Enlarged EU", pp.36~37 (2005)
  23. "Lee, Kyu Young & Lee, Jong Won", pp.47~49 (2005)
  24. "Turkish delight Does Turkey's accession to the EU bring economic benefit?" (2004)
  25. "Economic implication for countries and industries forthcoming in MIT Press" (2004)
  26. "Identifying the common component in international economic fluctuations" (1999)
  27. "Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development" (1999)
  28. "Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development" (2001)
  29. "The next Mediterranean Enlargement of the European Community; Turkey" (1993)
  30. "The Common Agricultural Policy" (1997)
  31. "the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade", eco(mic policy) (2000), One Market
  32. "^State Plannning Organization^Arıtma Sistemleri ve Katı Atık Denetimi^Ouml;zel ?htisas Konisyonu Raporu" (2000)
  33. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration", 108, pp.300~323 (2000)
  34. "Opening up the Turkish Economy in the context of the Customs Union with the EU", 12(2), pp.157~179 (1997)
  35. "politics and economics of accession"
  36. "World Development Indicators" (2003)
  37. "Global Development Finance" (2003)
  38. "International Trade Statistics 2000" (2000)
  39. "Tackling the European migration problem", pp.45~62 (1995)

관련 논문AI추천

Economic Implications of the EU Enlargement on the 3rd Country: The Case of Korea박순찬, 이종화한국유럽학회 · 유럽연구2007 · 제24권 The Impact of the Euro on Korean Trade김미아한국국제통상학회 · 국제통상연구2004 · 제9권 제3호A Korea-EU Free Trade Agreement and Analysis of its Economic Effects using a Dynamic CGE Model고종환, 이종원한국유럽학회 · 유럽연구2008 · 제26권 제3호EU-터키 관세동맹에 따른 터키 통상정책의 행보 -적극적 FTA 정책인가, EU의 FTA를 답습하는가?-강유덕지중해지역원 · 지중해지역연구2016 · 제18권 제1호Dynamic CGE에 의한 韓·美 FTA하의 韓·EU FTA 影響分析김충실한국국제경제학회 · 국제경제연구2008 · 제14권 제1호The Implications for the Korea-EU FTA: Lessons from the Previous Experience신상협, 이종원한국유럽학회 · 유럽연구2007 · 제24권

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (12건)

터키의 유럽연합 회원국 가입연구 : 이슈와 전망이규영pp. 1-26유럽연합의 대외정책과 다층적거버넌스에 대한 연구방청록pp. 55-84유럽연합의 공직제도에 관한 연구정창화pp. 85-112유럽연합의 확대개편에 따른 지역과제와 한계한형서pp. 113-136Eastern Enlargement of the EU and Reform of its Common Agricultural Policy고종환pp. 137-174
원문 보기