The Impact of the Euro on Korean Trade
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초록
본 논문에서는 유로화 도입이 한국과 EU국가 간의 무역에 있어서 어떠한 효과를 주는가를 알아보기 위하여 중력모형을 이용하여 실증 분석하였다. 한국의 주요교역상대국 33개국의 횡단면자료와 1972-2002년의 시계열자료를 결합하여 패널분석을 시도한 결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 유로화도입이 한국과 EU간의 무역에 미치는 효과는 부정적인 것으로 나타났지만 통계적인 유의성이 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 두 가지 측면에서 해석할 수 있는데 첫째는 현재 유로화가 도입 된 후 불과 4년이 지나 유로화 도입의 효과가 아직 가시화되지 못한 결과로 평가된다. 둘째는 유로화가 도입된 시기는 우리나라가 외환위기를 경험한 직후이기 때문에 무역규모도 축소되고 무역패턴도 왜곡되어 유로화 도입의 효과를 추정하는데 한계가 있는 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
This paper explores the effects of the euro on Korean trade by estimating an empirical “gravity” equation. We use a panel of 31 annual observations(1972-2002) on Korea’s trade with 33 countries. The results show that the introduction of Euro had no significant effect on Korea-EU trade. That is, the introduction of euro did not slow the growth of Korean trade with EU to any significant effect. There are some reasons for this results. First, four years after the introduction of the euro, it is still too early to pass judgement on the euro’s effect However, it is expected that the effects of Euro on Korea-EU trade are likely to evolve over some considerable period of time. Second, the use of late 1990’s data would probably lead to biased estimates without reflecting euro’s effect since Korean trade patterns experienced severe distortions due to the Asian currency crisis in 1997,
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