스웨덴과 핀란드의 중립외교와 나토(NATO)가입영향에 관한 연구 - 양국 중립외교의 모순분석을 중심으로 -
A Study on the Neutral Diplomacies of Sweden and Finland and the Influences from the NATO-Integration of both Countries - Centering around Analyzing the Contradictions of the Neutral Diplomacies of both Countries -
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스웨덴과 핀란드는 각각 2세기와 1세기 넘게 공식적으로 비(非)군사동맹주의를 근간으로 하는 중립외교를 표방하였다. 이로인해 양국의 나토가입으로 인한 유럽 내 군사안보질서의 변화가 클 것으로 전망된다. 그러나 양차 세계대전과 같은 근현대 국제관계사의 주요 사안에서 양국은 중립주의를 지키지 않았으며, 양국의 실질적인 외교행태는 헤이그 협약(1907)에서 규정된 중립주의와 상당한 거리가 있다. 특히 스웨덴과 핀란드는 냉전 이후부터 서방과의 정치경제적 상호의존성을 증대시킴과 동시에, 2022년 훨씬 이전부터 나토와 지속적으로 상당한 수준의 군사안보협력관계를 발전시켰다. 그러므로 양국의 중립외교는 중립주의를 명분으로 하는 소극적 친서방외교라고 볼 수 있다. 이러한 관점에서 볼 때, 양국의 나토가입이 나토와 러시아 간 군사역학관계의 현저한 변화를 가져올 가능성은 크지 않다. 그 대신에 양국의 나토가입은 2010년대까지 사실상 공고화된 유럽 내 서방진영과 러시아 간 군사안보적 대립구도를 공식화하는 상징적 효과로 작용할 것이다.
Abstract
Sweden and Finland have proclaimed diplomatic neutrality based on non-military alliance since the 19th and 20th century respectively. That is why it is generally thought that the NATO-Integration of both countries would bring huge changes to the existing security order of Europe. However, both countries have not respected neutralism in major incidents of the modern international relations. And their diplomatic behaviors have not corresponded with the neutralism defined by the Hague conventions (1907). Especially, Sweden and Finland have increased their politico-economic interdependence with the West. Furthermore, they had developed the military and security cooperation with the NATO until 2022. Thus, the neutral diplomacies of both countries should be defined as a passive Pro-Western diplomacy, which utilizes superficially the notion of neutrality. In this respect, it would be not probable that the NATO-Integration of both countries would transform remarkably the existing balance of power between the NATO and Russia. Instead, that would play a symbolic role to make official the military confrontation of both sides, which had been already completed and consolidated until the 2010s.
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