러시아의 우크라이나 침공 이후 핀란드 외교안보정책 노선의 변화: 패러다임 전환과 새로운 정치적 합의의 탄생?

Abstract

Causing a shock to the international order across Europe and the world, the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war has made it inevitable to take a reconstructive approach to the foreign and security order established since the end of Cold War in general. In particular, Sweden and Finland which have long maintained own neutral foreign policy lines are now receiving international attentions as they decided to apply for the NATO membership through extensive processes of national debates and policy deliberation. This article contributes to estimating the impact of this war on the foreign and security order in Finland and the Nordic region by studying the change of the Finnish foreign and security policy prompted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Finland developed a unique neutrality and peace diplomacy policy in the context of special relations with the USSR since the Second World War. However, new political dynamics in foreign policy-making has been also demonstrated through its accession to the EU in 1995 and a total constitutional reform in 2000. This war undermined basic premises of the Finnish foreign and security policy line developed during the Post-Cold War era, thereby forcing key political actors such as the President, PM and cabinet members, Eduskunta (Finnish Parliament) and political parties to seriously consider reconstituting the existing policy line at the paradigm level. The new 2000 Constitution, which provided with a ‘parliamentary turn’ in foreign policy-making and the extensive policy and legislative consultation system unique to Finland have been found to work well enough even in the situations where an urgent crisis response is required. Although the final realization of Finland’s goal of joining the NATO remains to be seen further, Finland’s response to the war and its results strongly suggests a paradigm-level change in the Finnish foreign and security policy and the birth of a new political consensus.