경제변수가 한국인의 국가별 해외관광수요에 미치는 효과
The Effects of the Economic Variables on the Outbound Tourism Demand for Individual Countries in Korea
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초록
우리나라 사람들의 해외여행은 폭발적으로 증가하고 있으나 경제변수의 변동에 대한 해외여행패턴은 국가에 따라 다르게 나타나고 있다. 본고는 환율과 경기의 변동이 국가간 관광수요에 미치는 영향을 밝히는데 연구의 목적을 둔다. 먼저 모형의 안정성을 확인한 후 오차수정방정식을 도출하여 관광수요의 단기적 괴리에 대한 국가간 조정속도의 차이를 보인다. 모형을 추정하여 환율과 경기가 관광수요에 미치는 영향을 국가별로 밝힘과 더불어 충격반응함수를 이용하여 환율충격과 경기충격에 대한 관광패턴의 반응을 변동 방향, 변동 크기, 반응의 지속정도를 기준으로 살펴본 후, 전향적 이동회귀계수를 도출하여 환율과 경기의 영향력이 시간의 흐름에 따라 어떻게 변화하는가를 보인다.
Abstract
It is well known that Korean tourism demand is responsive to such variables as income, relative prices and exchange rates. However, we do not know the responsiveness of demand for destination countries' tourism to changes in these variables. This paper, hence, examines the responsiveness of tourism demand to changes in income and exchange rates using the ordinary least squares and rolling regression. The results show that the income variable affects tourism demand greater than the exchange rate for most of countries in the long-run. The difference between the positive income coefficient and the negative exchange rate coefficient is shown to be the greatest in China. The rolling regression shows that both the income and the exchange rate gain their strength as time passes. The Impulse Response Function indicates that while the tourists respond negatively to the shock in the exchange rate, they do positively to the shock in the income variable.
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