패널자료를 이용한 가계적자탈출과 진입에 관한 연구

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to investigate the dynamic changes in the household income- expenditure status using panel data. Utilizing the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study, 3,423 households were analyzed. Household deficit and surplus were measured by the gap between household income and expenditure in each year; in 2002 and 2003. Then the households were classified into four groups by the change in the deficit and surplus status between two years. The determinants of the exit from household deficit and the entry to household deficit were separately examined by logistic regression analyses, χ2 and t-test. Both socio-economic variables and changes in the variables were examined as determinants of each dependent variable.The main results were as follows. First, the rates of households in deficit in the balance of income and expenditure were similar in both years, but the households in deficit in 2002 were not the same households in deficit in 2003. The rate of households which were in surplus in 2002 was 70.3%. Among them, 22.9% newly entered into deficit status in 2003. Among total households, 29.7% was in deficit in 2002 and 49.1% of them escaped from deficit in 2003. Second, the determinants of the exit from household deficit were different in their effects from those of the entry to household deficit. Third, the entry to household deficit seems to be related to both the deduction of household income and the increase of expenditure. It is also related to the decrease in financial assets and the increase in debt. However the exit from household deficit is more likely to be related to the increase in household income than decrease in expenditure.