가계부채가 소비에 미치는 영향 : 미시자료를 중심으로
The Impact on Consumption of the Household Indebtedness in Korea
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본고는 그간 빠르게 확대된 가계부채가 국내소비에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 한국노동패널자료(2000～2007년)를 이용하여 미시적으로 살펴보고자 하였다. 패널모형을 이용한 소비함수 추정결과 소비에 대한 부채의 전반적인 효과는 정(+)인 것으로 나타나 분석대상 기간 동안 이루어진 가계신용 확대 등 전반적인 유동성제약 완화가 소비 증가에 기여해 온 것으로 분석되었다. 반면에 가처분소득 대비 부채상환부담 비율(DSR)은 예상과는 달리 소비에 뚜렷한 부(-)의 영향을 미치지는 않은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 분석대상 기간 동안 부채상환부담 비율이 저금리 기조 유지 등 거시환경적인 영향으로 오히려 추세적으로 감소한 데 기인하는 것으로 풀이된다. 한편 연도별 횡단면 분석 결과 2007년의 경우 부채의 계수값이 유의성은 낮으나 음(-)으로 나타나는 등 부채의 소비에 대한 효과가 최근 들어 변화하는 모습이 포착되었다. 이를 보다 자세히 살펴보기 위해 2007년에 한해 소득분위별로 소비함수를 추정해본 결과 1, 2분위의 경우 부채의 소비에 미치는 영향이 여전히 정(+)으로 분석되었으나 3분위의 경우 부채의 계수가 유의성이 낮긴 하나 음(-)의 값을 가지는 데다 DSR도 26%를 기점으로 부호가 양(+)에서 음(-)로 바뀌는 등 DSR이 일정 수준 이상에 다다르면 소비에 오히려 악영향을 미치기 시작하는 것으로 분석되었다. 그리고 부채보유 비중이 높은 4, 5분위 소득 계층에서도 미약하나마 DSR의 소비에 대한 부(-)의 효과가 포착되었다. 마지막으로 금융자산 보유 수준별로 소비함수를 추정한 결과 총자산 대비 금융자산 보유 비율이 전체 평균보다 낮은 그룹에서는 부채 및 DSR이 소비에 정(+)의 효과를 미치는 것으로 나타난 반면, 금융자산 보유 비율이 전체 평균보다 높은 그룹에서는 이들 변수의 유의성이 거의 없는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 유동성 제약이 큰 가계일수록 부채가 소비에 미치는 정(+)의 효과가 보다 뚜렷함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper examines what impact the increasing indebtedness of the Korean households has had on consumption. For the analysis, the Korea Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS), which is a household panel data compiled every year since 1998, is used. The estimation of consumption function using a panel data for the period of 2000～2007 shows that indebtedness has affected household consumption positively in Korea. This implies that the expansion of consumer credit has contributed to boosting consumption in the country by reducing the extent of liquidity constraint facing the households. Debt service ratio (DSR), on the other hand, has not exerted the expected negative influence on consumption, which seems to verify that low interest rates prevailing for the period have lessened the actual debt burden of the Korean households. The role of debt with regard to household consumption, however, may have changed recently, as the estimation of consumption function using yearly data reveals that the coefficient of debt became negative in 2007 although its statistical significance is not high. To locate the sources for the change, we estimate the consumption function for the year with subsamples regrouped by income or by the ratio of financial asset to total asset held by each household. By income class, we still can identify the positive role of debt on consumption for the first or second income quintile. For the third income quintile, however, the coefficient of debt becomes negative, and that of DSR changes from positive to negative at a point where DSR increases to be 26% and higher. In addition, for the fourth or fifth income quintile who hold more than two thirds of total household debt in Korea, the coefficient of DSR is negative although it is not highly significant. Meanwhile, for the households whose ratio of financial asset to total asset is lower than the sample average, both debt and DSR have had significantly positive impact on consumption. Both variables, however, lose explanatory power in consumption function for the group with more-than-average ratio of financial asset to total asset. Based on the results, we can conclude that the role of debt in boosting consumption has been significant in Korea since 2000, and this is particularly so for the households with lower income or those holding less financial assets. Since 2007, however, indebtedness seems to start affecting negatively on household consumption in Korea, especially for the middle or high income groups. Such a negative impact of indebtedness on consumption may have been reinforced since 2008 due to economic recession with the household debt level still hovering high.
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