라오스의 경제성장에서 대외부문의 역할: 무역, FDI, 원조, 관광, 송금을 중심으로
Roles of External Sectors in the Economic Growth of Laos: Focused on Trade, FDI, Foreign Aid, Tourist Revenue, and Remittances
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초록
이 연구는 라오스의 지속적인 성장을 주도해 온 요인들 중 대외요인의 역할에 대해 분석하고자 한다. 이를 위해 무역개방도 및 수출과 수입이 GDP에 미친 영향을 분석하고, 이와 함께 외국원조와 FDI, 관광수입, 송금의 효과도 분석한다. 단위근 검정 결과, 모든 항목의 수준변수들이 불안정성을 보였기 때문에 요한슨 공적분 검정을 통해 대외변수와 GDP 간에 공적분 관계가 존재하는지 확인했다. 관찰수의 제약 때문에 모든 대외변수들에 대해 각각 GDP와의 관계를 분석했다. 분석 결과, 송금을 제외하고 모든 대외변수들이 GDP와 공적분 관계를 갖고 있는 것이 확인되었다. 대외개방도의 증가는 라오스의 GDP를 늘리는 데 기여한 것으로 나타났다. 수출과 수입, 무역액을 개별적으로 GDP와의 관계를 분석해도 모두 GDP에 영향을 미치고 있는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 외국원조의 영향은 다른 변수들에 비해 특히 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 이것은 라오스가 높은 경제성장을 유지하기 위해서는 정부가 해외 원조기구 및 부국들과 좋은 관계를 유지하고, 무역 및 FDI 정책 패러다임을 전환해야 함을 의미한다. 라오스 정부는 제조업 수출의 진흥과 자원기반 FDI의 유치에 힘써야 한다.
Abstract
This paper tries to examine the impact of external sectors on economic growth in Laos. Since the New Economic Mechanism in 1986, Trade volume and flows of foreign aid, FDI, tourist revenue, and remittances have increased rapidly, which has been considered to contribute to economic growth of Laos. It uses annual time series data during the period 1988-2014. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is implemented to ascertain whether the variables included in this analysis are non-stationary. Because all variables are found to be stationary, we implemented Johansen cointegration test which can find the relations between variables avoiding stationarity of variables. The results of empirical analyses show that all foreign trade variables have cointegration relations with GDP except remittances. In addition, it is shown that exports, imports and trade volumes have positive relations with GDP when analysed respectively. But remittances are not shown to have any effect. Foreign aid has greater effect on GDP than any other external sectors. This suggests that to sustain a high rate of economic growth Laotian government should have maintain good relationships with international aid agencies and rich countries and improve trade and FDI policy paradigm. It is desirable for Laotian government to promote exporting manufactural products and nurturing FDI based on the resources of the country.
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