환동해 주변국의 경제 성장과 발전에서 제조업의 중요성: Kaldor 법칙의 실증분석
The Role of Manufacturing in Economic Growth in Korean East Sea Rim Countries: An Empirical Analysis of Kaldor’s Law
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이 논문은 Kaldor의 제조업 성장엔진가설을 환동해 주변국, 즉 한국, 중국 및 일본을 대상으로 1970-2015년 기간 동안 실증·분석하였다. 이를 위해 Kaldor 모형에 신고전학파 이론의 공급 측면 성장요인을 추가한 확장모형을 추정하고 VECM(Vector Error Correction Model)을 도입하여 정태-동태 역설을 시계열기법을 활용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 우선 제조업 생산과 GDP, 그리고 농업 및 서비스 생산 간 공적분관계가 있는 것으로 나타나 Kaldor 모형에 VECM의 도입이 적절함을 확인해 주고 있으며 정태-동태의 역설이 완화될 수 있음을 보여주고 있다. 둘째, 제조업 생산증가율에 대한 추정계수는 모형설정이나 추정방법에 관계없이 통계적으로 유의하게 나타나 환동해 주변국가에서 지속적으로 제조업 성장엔진 가설이 지지되고 있다. 이러한 결과는 세계적인 서비스 비중의 확대에 따라 발생하는 Baumol병을 완화하기 위해 추진되는 서비스 지원정책보다 제조업 부흥정책이 일자리 창출이나 기술혁신 유발 효과가 더 크게 나타날 수 있음을 시사한다. 마지막으로 제조업 생산증가율에 대한 추정계수의 크기를 비교해 보면, 중국의 추정계수가 가장 크게 나타나고 있으며 한국, 일본의 순으로 나타나 제조업 생산의 증가율의 경제 성장 효과가 국가의 발전단계에 따라 달리 나타날 수 있음을 보이고 있다. 이는 초기발전단계의 개발도상국은 저(低)기술제조품과 소비재 생산에 특화하여 경제성장을 가속화할 수 있지만 중기발전단계에 도달할 경우, 이러한 산업의 특화만으로 충분치 않으며 자본재 및 하이텍 산업으로의 구조변화를 추구하는 산업정책이 필요함을 시사한다.
Abstract
This paper investigates whether or not the manufacturing sector is still important in playing the role of the engine of economic growth for countries near Korean East Sea, specifically Korea, China and Japan. By using APO databases over the period 1970-2015, it empirically examines Kaldor’s law which states correlation between GDP growth and the growth rate of manufacturing production. To do so, it controls for endogenity or simultaneity of the growth rate of the manufacturing production variable by employing two stage residual inclusion estimation procedure. It also introduces the Error Correction Model to consider the statics-dynamics paradox and cointegration relationship of non-stationary variables. Empirical results show that the growth rates of manufacturing output are positively associated with GDP growth for all three countries, regardless of different models or estimation methods. This supports Kaldor’s law implying that manufacturing sector plays the key role of economic development and growth for three countries. This implies that the long-term growth is demand-determined, rather than supply-determined, which is not consistent with the prediction of neoclassical and endogenous growth theories. Overall, the experience from the three countries near Korean East Sea tells us that the impacts of manufacturing output growth on economic growth are dependent on development stages. In earlier stage of development, the effects of manufacturing output on economic growth are larger than in later stages of development, which leads to different contribution to economic growth.
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