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우리나라의 수출주도형 성장가설에 대한 실증분석

Empirical Investigation for Export-led Growth Hypothesis in Korea

김애영
한국국제통상학회 (The Korean Association of Trade and Industry Studies)|2007.05|국제통상연구 (Journal of International Trade and Industry Studies)|제12권 제1호|pp. 81-100

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참고문헌

키워드

벡터오차수정모형Granger causalityGranger 인과관계수출주도 성장가설수준벡터자기회귀모형export-led growth hypothesisVector error-correction model(VECM)Vector autoregressive model in levels(VARL).
주제분류무역학

초록

본 논문은 한국을 대상으로 수출과 경제성장 사이에 Granger 인과관계를 실증 분석함으로써 수출주도형 성장가설(export-led growth hypothesis)을 검정하고자 한다. 이를 위해 수출과 제조업생산 이외에 자본스톡, 교역조건, 해외생산충격 등을 포함한 변수들 간의 동태적 특성을 반영하는 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)과 Toda-Yamamoto가 개발한 수준 벡터자기회귀모형(VARL)을 이용하여 2변수모형과 5변수모형을 각각 분석하였다. 분석결과 사용한 모형과 방법에 상관없이 단기와 장기에 수출증가가 제조업생산증가를 Granger 인과하는 것으로 나타났다. 더 나아가 분석에 포함된 자본스톡, 교역조건, 해외생산충격 등이 통계적으로 유의할 뿐 아니라 중요한 정책적 시사점을 제시하고 있다. 즉 수출주도형 성장전략은 유효하며 투자가 수출증가를 Granger 인과하는 것으로 나타났다. 특히 단기에 환율정책이나 무역정책으로 인한 교역조건의 변화는 수출변화를 Granger 인과하지 않음이 확인됨으로써 투자활성화를 통한 수출증대가 성장의 원동력임을 재확인할 수 있다.

Abstract

This paper investigates the export-led growth(ELG) hypothesis based on the Granger concept of causality between exports and output growth in Korea. In addition to export and manufacturing production as a proxy for output growth, capital stock, terms of trade and foreign output shocks are included as third variables, which may affect exports and/or output growth. To justify whether the inclusion of third variables leads to different causality, bivariate framework is also examined. To test for Granger causality, I use two advanced time series approaches; cointegrating-vector error correction model and VARL model developed by Toda and Yamamoto. The latter is chosen to make up for a potential problem in which there may be more than one cointegration among the variables included.The empirical findings in this study strongly support ELG hypothesis for Korea whether or not the third variables are included and regardless of the methods applied.Additional findings with the third variables suggest important policy implications. That is, changes in terms of trade do not lead to export growth but investments have positive effects on export growth. This implies that changes in terms of trade through depreciation and trade policies may not be effective in increasing export. Rather the policies and firm-friendly environments to stimulate domestic investment can lead to export growth which in turn can cause output growth.

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