아시아 국가의 경제성장에서 제조업 부문의 역할: 국가 간 상호의존성을 고려한 실증분석
The Role of Manufacturing in Economic Growth in Asian Countries: An Empirical Analysis Considering Panel Dependence
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이 논문은 1970년∼2015년 기간 동안 아시아 국가를 대상으로 Verdoorn모형의 규모수익 체증 계수를 추정하여 Kaldor의 제조업 성장엔진 가설을 검증하고 경제성장에서 제조업의 중요성을 논의하였다. 이 논문은 선행연구의 패널분석에서 고려하지 않은 횡단면 단위, 즉 국가 단위의 상호의존성과 개별 국가의 규모수익 체증 계수의 상이성, 그리고 제조업 생산과 생산성 간 단기 및 장기적 관계를 동시에 고려하는 CCE-MG 패널 ECM 기법을 활용하여 비교·분석하였다. 분석 결과, 우선 아시아 국가 간 상호의존성이 존재하며 개별 국가의 규모수익 체증의 크기가 서로 상이하게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 개별 국가 단위 횡단면 자료의 독립성을 가정하는 전통적인 패널기법을 적용하여 Kaldor모형을 추정하면 편의적 결과를 유발할 수 있음을 의미한다. 아시아 국가의 상호의존성은 수출 주도적 성장전략과 공급사슬의 강화를 반영하고 있으며 제조업의 규모수익 체증의 상이성은 이들 국가의 경제발전 정도에 따라 성장 과정에서 제조업의 역할이 서로 달리 나타날 수 있음을 시사한다. 둘째, 단기 및 장기간 관계를 통합하는 CCE-MG 패널 ECM을 추정한 결과는 아시아 국가 간 상호의존성을 무시하여 유발되는 편의적 추정 결과가 완화될 수 있음을 보여주고 있다.
Abstract
This paper empirically examines Verdoorn’s law and discusses importance of the role of the manufacturing sector as an engine of economic growth for Asian countries. By using Asian Productivity Organizat ion databases over the period 1970-2015, it empirically examines Verdoorn’s law which states correlation between productivity growth and the growth rate of manufacturing production. To do so, it controls for panel dependence and heterogeneity of parameters among countries by employing CCE-MG estimation procedure. It also introduces the panel error correction model (PECM) to discuss the statics-dynamics paradox and cointegration relationship of non-stationary variables used here. Empirical results summarized as follows. First, the panel dependence and heterogeneity of Verdoorn’s parameters across Asian countries can be found to be statistically significant, which implies the violation of assumptions of traditional panel methods. Next, to control for panel dependence and parameter heterogeneity, the use of CCE-MG procedure for estimation of PECMs can be found to be valid, implying that traditional methods applied to the Verdoorn’s law such as random effect and fixed effect panel techniques can produce biased results. Finally, the growth rates of manufacturing output are found to be positively associated with productivity growth for Asian countries, regardless of different models or estimation methods. This supports Kaldor’s law implying that manufacturing sector plays the key role of economic development and growth for Asian countries. This implies that the long-term growth is demand-determined, rather than supply-determined, which is not consistent with the prediction of neoclassical and endogenous growth theories. Overall, the experience from Asian countries tells us that the impacts of manufacturing output growth on productivity growth are statistically significant, showing important role of manufacturing in contribution to economic growth in Asian countries.
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