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韩日经济相互依赖关系变化及发展趋势分析

Analysis on the Change and Development Trend of Economic Interdependence between South Korea and Japan

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초록

过去几年间,韩日相互采取的贸易管制措施并没有对双边经济关系产生重大影响,原因在于韩日经济已经形成双向的相互依赖关系,所谓的管制措施只不过增加了进出口程序的复杂性而不是完全禁止贸易。通过对贸易贡献度和竞争力指数的定量分析,探索日韩受贸易管制措施影响下经济相互依赖关系的最新发展趋势,并明晰韩日经济关系中的竞争性障碍和互补性空间。研究发现,虽然韩国进口市场对于日本的依赖程度相对较深,但两国在彼此进出口市场中的拉动作用正在呈接近趋势。韩日产业间水平分工特征更加明显的同时,产业内和产业间的互补性依然存在。虽然日本产品的竞争力维持着一定的优势,但其在半导体领域的竞争力呈逐年下降趋势。按照这一趋势,未来韩日经济关系的竞争性会更强,两国间合作的拓展、深化取决于能否挖掘新的合作领域和能否保持政治关系的稳定。于韩国而言,需要进一步在产业链的自主可控与多元化、探索韩日新兴合作领域与互补性、加强两国政治互信与机制建设等多方面综合考虑,以实现可持续发展与互利共赢。

Abstract

Over the past few years, trade control measures taken by South Korea and Japan have not had a significant impact on bilateral economic relations, because the Korean and Japanese economies have formed a two-way interdependence relationship, and the so-called control measures only add complexity to import and export procedures rather than an outright ban on trade. Through the quantitative analysis of trade contribution and competitiveness index, this paper explores the latest development trend of the economic interdependence between Japan and South Korea under the influence of trade control measures, and identifies the competitive obstacles and complementarity space in the economic relations between South Korea and Japan. The study found that although South Korea’s import market is relatively dependent on Japan, the pulling role of the two countries in each other’s import and export markets is approaching. While the horizontal division of labor between Korean and Japanese industries has become more obvious, the complementarity within and between industries still exists. Although the competitiveness of Japanese products has maintained certain advantages, its competitiveness in the semiconductor field has been declining year by year. According to this trend, the economic relations between Korea and Japan will become more competitive in the future, and the expansion and deepening of cooperation between the two countries will depend on whether new areas of cooperation can be explored and whether political relations can be maintained. For South Korea, it is necessary to further consider the independent control and diversification of the industrial chain, explore the emerging areas of cooperation and complementarity between South Korea and Japan, and strengthen political mutual trust and mechanism building between the two countries in order to achieve sustainable development and mutual benefit and win-win situation.

참고문헌 (22)

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