중국의 경제성장과 유효수요, 그리고 정부의 역할
Economic Growth in China, Effective Demand and the Role of the Government
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개혁정책 도입 이후 중국의 지속적인 경제성장을 설명하려는 대부분의 기존연구는 비교우위에 따른 자원의 재분배 및 인센티브제도 등 시장 메커니즘의 도입과 요소투입량의 증가가 중국경제의 성장동력이라는 분석결과를 제시하고 있다. 그러나 이러한 결론은 이론적으로뿐만 아니라 실증적으로도 지지되기 어렵다. 따라서 본 연구는 중국의 지속적인 경제성장이 사적 이윤 동기나 정태적 자원배분의 효율성보다는 개혁정책 실시 이후 확대된 유효수효로 더 잘 설명될 수 있음을 보이고, 공간계량경제모형을 이용한 실증분석 결과를 제시한다. 또한, 유효수요 확대를 위한 중국정부의 정책들을 소개함으로써 중국의 경제성장에서 중앙 및 지방정부가 중심적 역할을 수행해왔음을 증명한다. 본 연구의 정책적 함의는 소득재분배 정책을 통한 가계부문의 유효수요 확대 정책이 사회적 혼란 없는 체제전환뿐만 아니라, 지속 가능한 경제성장에도 필수불가결한 요소라는 점을 재확인시키고 있다는 점이다.
Abstract
The conventional approaches to the sources of rapid and sustained economic growth in China since 1978 argue that it could be attributable to either the re-allocation of resources in line with comparative advantage and the new incentive system, both of which were the direct result of the reform policy toward a market economy, or a massive increase in inputs of factors of production. In contrast to the mainstream conventional arguments, using spatial econometrics models which are built on Kaldorian approach, our study empirically shows that the demand-side approach can best explain the Chinese economic growth. It also investigates the policies that the Chinese government took to improve effective demand of chinese households, which should indicate the central role in promoting the economic growth in China. The findings of this study imply that policies of income distribution favorable to workers are necessary not only for a successful transition to a new economic system, but also for a sustainable economic development.
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