정치적 도덕성과 유권자 선택: 2021년 서울·부산 시장 보궐선거 사례분석
Political Morality and Voters’ Choice: An Empirical Analysis of Seoul and Busan Mayor By-Elections in 2021
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초록
이 연구는 한국 양대 정당의 도덕성에 대한 유권자들의 평가가 이들의 정당 선호와 투표 선택에 미친 영향에 대한 분석을 시도한다. 이 논문은 사적 윤리나 이상주의적인 도덕과 달리 러셀 하딘(Russel Hardin)이 강조한 제도적 도덕성(institutional morality)에 주목하여, 대의 민주주의의 제도적 실행자로서 요구되는 한국정당들의 다면적인 윤리 규범에 초점을 두었다. 2021년 실시된 서울·부산 시장 보궐선거 이후 시행된 여론조사자료를 분석한 결과, 첫째, 후보자의 정책수행 능력보다 도덕성을 중시한 이들은 더불어민주당 후보에게, 그렇지 않은 이들은 국민의힘 후보에게 투표하는 경향이 발견되었다. 둘째, 유권자들은 더불어민주당보다 국민의힘을 성 윤리와 경제문제 해결 능력에 있어서 더 긍정적으로 평가하였으나, 다른 윤리 항목들과 사회문제 해결능력에서는 그렇지 않았다. 마지막으로 선거 시기 쟁점이었던 더불어민주당의 시장후보공천 뿐만 아니라 정당의 도덕성에 대한 평가가 정당 선호도와 투표 결정에 유의미한 영향을 미쳤다. 이러한 분석 결과는 한국 선거연구에서 정치적 도덕성에 관한 체계적인 분석이 필요하다는 점을 시사한다.
Abstract
This study attempts to examine how Korean voters evaluate the morality of two major parties and analyze its influences on their party preferences and voting decision. Following Hardin’s concept of institutional morality, which is different from personal ethics or idealistic morality, it focuses on multi-dimensional moral rules of political parties required as the main institutional actors of representative democracy. Analyzing the post-election survey data of Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections in 2021, first, this research shows that those citizens prioritizing morality over policy capacity tend to vote for the candidates of the Democratic Party and the other ones tend to vote for the candidates of the People Power Party. Second, the People Power Party is perceived as superior to the Democratic Party in sexual ethics and economic policy capacity, whereas it was not in the other areas of morality and policy capacity. Finally, how voters evaluate institutional morality of the two parties as well as immoral nomination of the Democratic Party affects their party preferences and vote choices. These results suggest that systematic analysis on political morality is needed in the study of Korean elections.
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