우리나라의 주택시장 가격변동에 대한 기대 요인의 영향 분석
An Investigation to the Housing Price Fluctuations caused by Rational Expectation Factors in Korea
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초록
본 연구는 기존의 경제이론 및 분석 방법이 제시하는 내생적 가격기대 모형이 최근 한국의 주택가격변동에 대한 특징을 규명하는데 한계가 있다는 문제제기에서 시도되었다. 전통적 분석모형이 갖는실증모형의 한계를 극복하기 위해 다음 두 가지 학술적 기여를 목표로 한다. 첫째, 주택가격에 영향을미치는 기대 요인을 크게 자기강화 기대와 시장균형에 대한 기대요인으로 구분하고 이들 요인의우리나라 주택가격 수렴/확산에 대한 영향을 분석한다. 둘째, 주택가격변동에 대한 실증분석 결과로부터 주택시장에 대한 정부정책 방향에 대한 함의를 제시한다. 실증분석 결과는 모형에서 지역별차이보다는 기간별 차이가 존재하며, 기간별 특성을 확인한 결과 현실설명력의 한계를 보이지만, 주택시장 안정화를 통한 거시경제의 건전한 성장을 도모하기 위해서는 주택시장에 대한 지속적인모니터링과 시기에 따른 차별적 정책개입이 필요하다는 정책적 시사점을 제시한다.
Abstract
This study attempted to raise the issue that the endogenous price expectations suggested by the existing theory and analysis methods have limitations in characterizing the recent housing prices changes in Korea. To overcome the limitations of traditional empirical approaches, we focus on the following two contributions: first, we extend the model to analyze the rational expectation factors under dynamic frameworks divided by self-reinforcement and equilibrium price expectation factor, which affect the housing price. Second, we provide implications of the government policy for the housing market from the empirical evidence to the convergence of the housing market. The empirical results show that there is a difference in periods rather than regional aspects, and that the characteristics of each period show limitations in explanatory power. Nevertheless, it is necessary to analyze the consistency by adding exogenous variables such as psychological factors. This suggests policy implications that continuous monitoring of psychological factors of economic agents, including price expectation factors, and discriminatory policy interventions.
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