공무원임대주택(고덕8단지) 재건축의 사업성분석에 관한 연구

Abstract

As a part of government officials’ welfare program, the Government Employees Pension Service(GEPS) has conducted public officials’ rental housing project since 1982. At that time, GEPS purchased 510 units of houses at three regions, including Taepyeong-dong, Daejeon city, to rent public officials. Since then, the stock of public officials’ rental housing increases 3.5 times to 18,516 units of houses at 77 apartment complexes on a national scale by June 2011. Among them, about 10,000 units of houses need to be reconstructed since those rental housing was built in 1980s and thus became obsolete, and was small, less than 60 ㎡, not to accommodate the demand for more comfortable size. And thus GEPS establishes a project plan to reconstruct the rental housing. This study is a feasibility study for the reconstruction project of government officials’ rental housing at the Godeock 8th Apartment Block as a case. In usually, housing reconstruction project is conducted pursuant to the regulations of Act on the Maintenance and Improvement of Urban Areas and Dwelling Conditions for Residents. However, the case project is unable to follow up that Act’s regulations, since that Act regulates reconstruction project, which is conducted by the housing cooperatives. The housing of the case project is rental housing owned by the government, not by individual owners who can organize the reconstruction cooperative. And thus the study recommends that the case project shall be conducted pursuant to the regulations of Housing Act. The study reviews profitability of three alternatives; disposing of the existing houses and buying new houses, selling land after demolishing the existing rental housings, and selling new houses after reconstruction project. The study finds that the third option, selling new houses after reconstruction project, has the largest profitability. As for the third option, the study simulates three scenarios based on housing size; Alternative 1 is that all housings are less than 85㎡, Alternative 2 is that all housings are larger than 85㎡, and Alternative 3 is that housing sizes are mixed up. And then the study surveys the market situations and calculates the profitability. To control the projet risk, the study carries out the sensitivity analyse reflecting the unit prices of land and the current situation of frozen housing market. The study finds that all three alternatives have business values, but Alternative 1 has the highest return of investment. Considering the current recessed real estate market, consumers’ preferences for housing size and also the rate of return of investment, the study recommends Alternative 1 consisting mainly of small-sized, less than 85㎡, houses can produce the maximized profits.