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가격-면적 군집에 의한 주택 수요에 관한 연구- 부산시를 중심으로 -

A Study on the Housing Demand according to the Price-Area - Focused on Busan City -

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This study is about housing demand according to price-area in Busan, and the purpose is to analyze the housing demand of different cluster and estimate the total housing demand in Busan until 2020. Recently, because of changing household structure, the 1-2 person household is increasing steadily, and the housing demand is changing as the normal household is changing from 4 people to 3 people. According to the estimated future population data, the growth rate of households in Busan will be decreased gradually until 2020, and after 2012, the number of households will start decreasing, which is why the policy for housing demand must be reconsidered now. This study studied both housing demand based on area from the conventional aggregate approach, and housing demand that combined price and area. Also, the housing demand of different cluster was studied and estimated by considering regional characteristics.

Abstract

This study is about housing demand according to price-area in Busan, and the purpose is to analyze the housing demand of different cluster and estimate the total housing demand in Busan until 2020. Recently, because of changing household structure, the 1-2 person household is increasing steadily, and the housing demand is changing as the normal household is changing from 4 people to 3 people. According to the estimated future population data, the growth rate of households in Busan will be decreased gradually until 2020, and after 2012, the number of households will start decreasing, which is why the policy for housing demand must be reconsidered now. This study studied both housing demand based on area from the conventional aggregate approach, and housing demand that combined price and area. Also, the housing demand of different cluster was studied and estimated by considering regional characteristics.

참고문헌 (14)

  1. 김경환, "인구의 연령구조 변화와 주택수요 및 주택가격", 대한부동산학회지, 17 (1999)
  2. 김주원, "소형가구 주택수요 특성에 관한 연구 : 주택정책 제안을 중심으로", 박사, 부동산학, pp.2011
  3. 김주원, "소형가구 연령대별 주택수요 특성 분석", 주택연구, 19(2), pp.123~150 (2011), 한국주택학회
  4. 이주형, "가구원수에 따른 주택유형 선택에 관한 연구", 한국도시지리학회지, 12(3), pp.151~163 (2009), 한국도시지리학회
  5. 이창무, "가구특성을 고려한 장기주택수요 예측모형 - 보완된 Mankiw & Weil 모형을 적용하여 -", 국토계획, 44(5), pp.149~161 (2009), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  6. 이형주, "인구 및 가구 특성에 따른 규모별 주택수요 변화에 관한 연구 : 수도권을 중심으로", 박사, 부동산학, pp.2011
  7. 임종현, "서울시 인구구조에 따른 공동주택수요 특성 및 전망", 국토연구, 53, pp.147~162 (2007), 국토연구원
  8. 장재일, "경제변수와 확률을 이용한 주택수요예측", 국토계획, 43(7), pp.31~42 (2008), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  9. 정의철, "도시가구의 주택규모 결정요인 추정 에 관한 연구", 주택연구, 9(1) (2003), 한국주택학회
  10. 정의철, "인구구조 변화에 따른 장기주택수요 전망에 관한 연구", 국토계획, 40(3), pp.37~46 (2005), 대한국토·도시계획학회
  11. 정창무, "맨큐-웨일 장기주택수요모형의 적정성 평가 - 서울지역을 중심으로 -", 대한건축학회논문집 계획계, 24(2), pp.245~252 (2008), 대한건축학회
  12. 조주현, "1인 가구의 주택수요 특성에 관한 연구 -서울시를 중심으로", 부동산학연구, 16(4), pp.33~52 (2010), 한국부동산분석학회
  13. Engelhardt, G., "House Price and Demographic Change : Canadian Evidence", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 21 (1991)
  14. Mankiw, N., "The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust and the Housing Market", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19(2) (1989)

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