가구원수별 가구수를 활용한 주택수요추정 모형 연구
A Study on Housing Demand Estimation Model Based on Household Size
0
조회
0
다운로드
12
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper aims at developing a household-based housing demand model. The traditional Mankiw-Weil (M-W) model and derivative models have used population data to estimate housing demand. Those models have limitation that population decrease can diminish housing demand directly even though the number of households increases. Korea Statistical Office forecasts that the number of households will reach the peak in 2043 after population size starts decreasing in 2031. In fact, the number of households increases for 12 years despite the decrease in population. This study suggests a household-based model using 2014 Korea Housing Survey data with two control variables; income and housing expense of each household. The main independent variables are six dummies representing the number of family members from 1 to 6 or over. Nonlinear estimation results show that the model is statistically better than the most recently modified M-W model in terms of goodness of fit. The coefficients of family size dummies in the household-based model are all significant at 1% while the M-W model has some insignificant coefficients. The estimation results by the two models show that increase of household expands housing demand during population decrease in 2030s and 2040s. The results imply that the existing M-W model may underestimate future housing demand and cause serious short supply if the housing policy depends on the population-based housing demand model like M-W model. In other words, the household-based model suggested by this study can be used as one of the effective housing demand models for population decline era.
Abstract
This paper aims at developing a household-based housing demand model. The traditional Mankiw-Weil (M-W) model and derivative models have used population data to estimate housing demand. Those models have limitation that population decrease can diminish housing demand directly even though the number of households increases. Korea Statistical Office forecasts that the number of households will reach the peak in 2043 after population size starts decreasing in 2031. In fact, the number of households increases for 12 years despite the decrease in population. This study suggests a household-based model using 2014 Korea Housing Survey data with two control variables; income and housing expense of each household. The main independent variables are six dummies representing the number of family members from 1 to 6 or over. Nonlinear estimation results show that the model is statistically better than the most recently modified M-W model in terms of goodness of fit. The coefficients of family size dummies in the household-based model are all significant at 1% while the M-W model has some insignificant coefficients. The estimation results by the two models show that increase of household expands housing demand during population decrease in 2030s and 2040s. The results imply that the existing M-W model may underestimate future housing demand and cause serious short supply if the housing policy depends on the population-based housing demand model like M-W model. In other words, the household-based model suggested by this study can be used as one of the effective housing demand models for population decline era.
참고문헌 (23)
- 김경환, "인구의 연령구조 변화와 주택수요 및 주택가격", 대한부동산학, 17 (1999), 대한부동산학회지
- 김미경, "분위회귀를 이용한 주택규모별 수요예측", 부동산학연구, 21(3), pp.45~62 (2015), 한국부동산분석학회
- 김옥연, "1인가구 주거실태 분석-서울시 1인가구를 중심으로-", 주거환경, 7(2), pp.37~53 (2009), 한국주거환경학회
- 김주원, "소형가구 연령대별 주택수요 특성 분석", 주택연구, 19(2), pp.123~150 (2011), 한국주택학회
- 김준형, "고령화와 주택시장: 은퇴 전후 주택소비 변화를 중심으로", 부동산학연구, 17(4), pp.59~71 (2011), 한국부동산분석학회
- 김진유, "공공임대주택 입주계층별 주택수요추정 방법 연구 - 행복주택을 중심으로 -", 주택도시연구, 7(3), pp.1~18 (2017), SH공사 도시연구원[DOI]
- 박천규, "헤도닉가격 및 Mankiw-Weil모형을 이용한 지역별 주 거서비스 수요특성분석", 지역개발연구, 40(2) (2008), 전남대학교지역개발연구
- 안국신, "부동산가격과 거시경제모형", 경제발전연구, 14(1), pp.121~150 (2008), 한국경제발전학회
- 이창무, "가구특성을 고려한 장기주택수요 예측모형 - 보완된 Mankiw & Weil 모형을 적용하여 -", 국토계획, 44(5), pp.149~161 (2009), 대한국토·도시계획학회
- 이창무, "APC 모형에 기초한 장기주택수요 추정", 주택연구, 25(1), pp.5~34 (2017), 한국주택학회
- 정수연, "수정된 Mankiw and Weill 모형을 이용한 제주도 주택수요 추정", 주택연구, 24(3), pp.95~131 (2016), 한국주택학회
- 정의철, "인구구조 변화에 따른 장기주택수요 전망에 관한 연구", 국토계획, 40(3), pp.37~46 (2005), 대한국토·도시계획학회
- 조동철, "우리나라의 부동산 가격 : 세율변동과장기적인지가 변화를 중심으로", KDI정책연구, 22(1) (2000), 한국개발연구원
- 조주현, "1인 가구의 주택수요 특성에 관한 연구 -서울시를 중심으로", 부동산학연구, 16(4), pp.33~52 (2010), 한국부동산분석학회
- 최성호, "비선형 Mankiw-Weil 주택수요 모형 - 수도권 지역을 대상으로 -", 부동산학연구, 16(1), pp.117~130 (2010), 한국부동산분석학회
- Chiuri, M. C., "Do the elderly reduce housing equity? An international comparison", Journal of Population Economics, 23(2), pp.643~663 (2010)
- Engelhardt, G. V., "House Prices and demographic change : Canadian evidence", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 21, pp.539~546 (1991)
- Kim, Jin Yoo, "A Derivative Mankiw-Weil Model Based on Household Size", AsRES, 57 (2017)
- Mankiw, N. G., "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 19, pp.235~258 (1989)
- Ohtake, F., "The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 26(2), pp.189~201 (1996)
- Poterba, J. M., "Tax subsidies to owner-occupied housing : an asset-market approach", The quarterly journal of economics, 99(4), pp.729~752 (1984)
- Swan, C. Allard, "Demography and the demand for housing", Regional Science and Urban Economics, 25, pp.41~58 (1995)
- "통계청 e-나라지표 총인구, 인구성장률"[URL]