인구구성 및 가구특성변화에 따른 주택수요추정 - 6대 광역시를 중심으로 -
ousing Demand Forecasting Based on Demographic and Household Characteristics - Focused on Six Metropolitan Cities -
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초록
This study attempted to predict on the long-term housing demand of six metropolitan cities- Busan, Ulsan, Deagu, Kwangju, Deajeon, Incheon. For this job, we extended the estimation of the Mankiw and Weil(1989) model on socio-demographic changes such as the number of family members. The domestic housing market has faced the demographic changes. Above all, the one-person households have increased rapidly. Considering the increase of one-person or spouseless households, we found that housing demand for these type of households had increased but, that for other type-over two persons households- had decreased. The mixed overall housing demand for all these two types is forecasted to increase very slowly after the year of 2020. Neverthless, Busan and Ulasn Cities will have faced more seriously stagnant housing demands, compared to the emerging metropolitan, Daejeon and Incheon Cities between 2010 and 2030.
Abstract
This study attempted to predict on the long-term housing demand of six metropolitan cities- Busan, Ulsan, Deagu, Kwangju, Deajeon, Incheon. For this job, we extended the estimation of the Mankiw and Weil(1989) model on socio-demographic changes such as the number of family members. The domestic housing market has faced the demographic changes. Above all, the one-person households have increased rapidly. Considering the increase of one-person or spouseless households, we found that housing demand for these type of households had increased but, that for other type-over two persons households- had decreased. The mixed overall housing demand for all these two types is forecasted to increase very slowly after the year of 2020. Neverthless, Busan and Ulasn Cities will have faced more seriously stagnant housing demands, compared to the emerging metropolitan, Daejeon and Incheon Cities between 2010 and 2030.
참고문헌 (23)
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