지가변동요인이 지가에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

Since 1960s Korea land prices have risen to very higher level than its real income growth as the impact of rapid economic growth, industrialization and urbanization. However from 1990's the growth-ratio of Korea land-price started to go down with social & economic stability. The purpose of this study is to support the proactive & effective land policy formulation and foresee the land market, when the impact of land price change factor could be different depending on social & economic situations. In other words, I would like to do the empirical analysis and verification for fluctuation factor of land prices through cross correlation analysis, Granger Sims causality test, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition analysis between macroeconomic variable, and it should be based on the following hypothesis, "Korea land price is influenced by economic fundamental factors such as macro-economic variables including GDP, Stock index, Total currency, Exchange rate, Gross fixed capital formation, Consumer price index, Interest rate(3yr corporate bonds), Building permit area indicator."As brief result of the analysis, the land price was affected by the economic fundamental factors like Interest rates, real GDP, Consumer price index. So when we decide the land policy, we need to pinpoint all economic conditions and consider the direction of appropriate land policy and how to run.