신규 아파트 초기 분양률 결정요인 분석에 관한 연구 - 경남 부산지역을 중심으로 -

Abstract

This study was conducted to examine the factors affecting the initial sales of new apartment units considering various variables in the distribution market, which had not been employed in existing studies with 252,281 households from a total of 361 sites from 2001 through 2013. The factors affecting the initial sales of apartment units were divided broadly into internal factors and external factors, and the initial sales within three months after the start of the distribution was set up as a dependent variable. The internal factors were divided into individual complex variable, parcel price variable and location environment variable while the external factors were divided into investment value variable, distribution environment variable and temporal variable. In addition to the overall factors affecting the sales, those depending on timing for sale and activity of the market were also examined. As a result, in the overall analysis, as internal factors, the number of households, business type (reconstruction/general), complex type (flat type+tower type), main pyeong scale, community facilities, deposit ratio, middle payment method, parcel price by area and educational environment (elementary school) were adopted while as external factors, all factors set up by hypotheses, brand value, real estate market state by area, existing apartment price by area, organizational distribution, rate of competition of subscription, realtors (temporary brokers), real estate policy and distribution plan of other companies were adopted. This study analyzed characteristics of the areas including Busan, Gyeongsangnam-do, Ulsan and Daegu to analyze the initial sales of apartment units taking the distinctiveness of the area into consideration, centered around Busan. This study drew out factors determining the sales suitable for the area considering the distinctiveness through an empirical analysis on the factors affecting the initial sales of apartment units, and has a significance in that it suggested an alternative for the distribution policy suitable for the status of the area and specifically analyzed the differences in the factors determining the sales depending on the timing for sale and the activity of the market.