패널 모형을 이용한 신축아파트의 판매량과 분양 계약률에 관한 연구

Abstract

(Purpose) Unsold housing, which represents the housing supply and demand gap, is the most influential factor in changes in the market; and, it is an important indicator for achieving the policy goal of stabilizing the housing market. The purpose of this study is to investigate the cause of the supply-demand mismatch in the housing market. (Design/methodology/approach) Unlike previous studies, the sales performance on the number of new apartment contracts and the apartment sales contract rate were newly defined. For each dependent variable, a panel model was constructed by dividing it into a demand part and a supply part; in addition, a fixed effect model and a random effect model were selected through Hausman's specification test to estimate the model. (Findings) The analysis results are as follows: (i) It was analyzed that the volatility of demand for new apartments is greater in the five metropolitan areas(Busan, Daegue, Gwangju, Daejeon, Ulsan) than in the Seoul-Incheon-Gyeonggi metropolitan area. (ii) The supply volume and the number of new apartment sales coincided with the housing market. (iii) It was revealed that the sale price regulation acts as a factor that causes excess demand. (iv) It was analyzed that interest rate rise has a negative (-) relationship both the sales performance on the number of new apartment contracts and the apartment sales contract rate. (Research implications or Originality) The implications of this study are as follows: (i) It can be seen that the local market changes more sensitively to the external environment than in the metropolitan area. (ii) Excessive regulation or revitalization policies can increase market instability, and the importance of stable supply and demand management in the mid- to long-term is found to be great. (iii) While the regulation of sale prices can help stabilize housing prices in the inventory market, it can be an incentive to generate excess demand. Therefore the relevant policies to reduce market distortions must be implemented in parallel. (iv) In monetary policy such as interest rates, financial risks to the housing construction market need to be taken into consideration as well.