서울시 공공임대주택 유형별 지속거주의사 영향요인 분석

Abstract

This study empirically analyzes how the type of public rental housing affects residents’ intention to stay. Using 2020–2022 Seoul Housing Survey data, logistic regression models were estimated with the housing type (construction-type or acquisition of pre-existing housing) as the main independent variable and housing obsolescence as a moderating factor. The results show that housing type alone does not significantly affect residential intention. However, in units over 20 years old—especially those older than 30 years—residents in pre-existing housing are significantly less likely to stay than those in construction-type housing. These findings suggest that aging public rental units, particularly pre-existing housing, may reduce long-term residential stability due to housing obsolescence and limited maintenance support. To address this, policies should improve housing conditions and provide differentiated strategies reflecting tenant characteristics. In particular, policies should facilitate upward mobility for tenants able to afford higher-quality housing, while providing transitional support through pre-existing housing for those in need of temporary assistance.