정전협정체제와 새로운 한반도 평화체제로의 전환 조건

Abstract

Over the course of seven decades, the armistice agreement system has played a significant role in averting large-scale military confrontations between North and South Korea while preventing the resumption of hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. The year 2018 marked a pivotal moment when the prospects for reconciliation between North and South Korea gained momentum, coinciding with the historic North Korea-U.S. summit. During this period, a noteworthy shift in public sentiment emerged, with seven out of ten Korean citizens expressing the view that the armistice agreement system should be replaced by a new framework for peace, achieved through a formal declaration of the end of the Korean War. However, it is essential to acknowledge the reservations articulated by experts regarding the implications of such a declaration. Concerns have been raised that an official end to the Korean War may undermine the foundation of the United Nations Command (UNC), potentially jeopardizing its continued existence. Additionally, there is apprehension about the potential adverse effects on the robust security alliance between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States. Such concerns have the potential to propagate discussions in the United States regarding the withdrawal of American troops from the Korean Peninsula, thereby introducing a heightened element of security instability. Fast forward to the year 2023, the security landscape on the Korean Peninsula has evolved in a manner significantly more precarious than it stood in 2018. North Korea's nuclear threat has escalated, with indications of an imminent seventh nuclear test. Provocations, including missile launches and drone infiltrations, persist, contributing to an increasingly tense security environment. This article undertakes a comprehensive evaluation of the efficacy and impact of the armistice agreement system over the past seven decades. It seeks to elucidate the multifaceted implications associated with the existing armistice framework, particularly in light of the evolving security dynamics involving South Korea, the United States, and Japan, as exemplified by the Washington Declaration. The distinct characteristics of the Korean Peninsula Armistice Agreement are examined, alongside the North Korean advocacy for a formal declaration of war's end and the potential culmination of a Korean Peninsula Peace Agreement. Within this analytical framework, we aim to delineate the inherent risks inherent in these developments. Furthermore, if the transition to a novel peace regime is deemed necessary, we endeavor to elucidate the precise conditions under which such a transition should be earnestly considered and pursued.