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금융위기 이후 예금취급기관 가계대출과 주택가격의 동태적 관계

The Dynamic Relationship between Household Loans of Depository Institutions and Housing Prices after the Financial Crisis

한규식
경영경제연구소 (management & economic research institute)|2020.12|아태비즈니스연구 ((APJB) Asia Pacific Journal of Business)|제11권 제4호|pp. 189-203|DOI https://doi.org/10.32599/apjb.11.4.202012.189

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참고문헌

키워드

StabilizationHousehold LoansHousing PricesHousehold Loan Interest Rates

초록

Purpose - This study aims in analyzing the dynamic relationship between household loans and housing prices according to the characteristics of depository institutions after the financial crisis, identifying the recent trends between them, and making policy suggestions for stabilizing house prices. Design/methodology/approach - The monthly data used in this study are household loans, household loan interest rates, and housing prices ranging from January 2012 to May 2020, and came from ECOS of the Bank of Korea and Liiv-on of Kookmin Bank. This study used vector auto-regression, generalized impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition with the data so as to yield analysis results. Findings - The analysis of this study no more shows that the household loan interest rates in both deposit banks and non-bank deposit institutions had statistically significant effects on housing prices. Also, unlike the previous studies, there was statistically significant bi-directional causality between housing prices and household loans in neither deposit banks nor non-bank deposit institutions. Rather, it was found that there is a unidirectional causality from housing prices to household loans in deposit banks, which is considered that housing prices have one-sided effects on household loans due to the overheated housing market after the financial crisis. Research implications or Originality - As a result, Korea's housing market is closely related to deposit banks, and housing prices are acting as more dominant information variables than interest rates or loans under the long-term low interest rate trend. Therefore, in order to stabilize housing prices, the housing supply must be continuously made so that everyone can enjoy housing services equally. In addition, the expansion and reinforcement of the social security net should be realized systematically so as to stop households from being troubled with the housing price decline.

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims in analyzing the dynamic relationship between household loans and housing prices according to the characteristics of depository institutions after the financial crisis, identifying the recent trends between them, and making policy suggestions for stabilizing house prices. Design/methodology/approach - The monthly data used in this study are household loans, household loan interest rates, and housing prices ranging from January 2012 to May 2020, and came from ECOS of the Bank of Korea and Liiv-on of Kookmin Bank. This study used vector auto-regression, generalized impulse response function, and forecast error variance decomposition with the data so as to yield analysis results. Findings - The analysis of this study no more shows that the household loan interest rates in both deposit banks and non-bank deposit institutions had statistically significant effects on housing prices. Also, unlike the previous studies, there was statistically significant bi-directional causality between housing prices and household loans in neither deposit banks nor non-bank deposit institutions. Rather, it was found that there is a unidirectional causality from housing prices to household loans in deposit banks, which is considered that housing prices have one-sided effects on household loans due to the overheated housing market after the financial crisis. Research implications or Originality - As a result, Korea's housing market is closely related to deposit banks, and housing prices are acting as more dominant information variables than interest rates or loans under the long-term low interest rate trend. Therefore, in order to stabilize housing prices, the housing supply must be continuously made so that everyone can enjoy housing services equally. In addition, the expansion and reinforcement of the social security net should be realized systematically so as to stop households from being troubled with the housing price decline.

참고문헌 (41)

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관련 논문AI추천

가계대출과 주택가격의 상관관계 : 글로벌 금융위기 전후를 중심으로조광조한국경제통상학회 · 경제연구2013 · 제31권 제1호주택담보대출과 주택가격의 상호작용김병국, 장한익한국감정평가학회 · 감정평가학논집2022 · 제21권 제3호주택담보대출과 주가가 대도시권 아파트가격에 미친 영향에 관한 연구 - 글로벌 금융위기 이후를 중심으로-전해정한국주거환경학회 · 주거환경2014 · 제12권 제4호은행대출과 주택가격 간의 상호작용정준호한국경제지리학회 · 한국경제지리학회지2013 · 제16권 제4호주택가격과 거시경제변수의 순환변동에 대한 연구심성훈한국부동산분석학회 · 부동산학연구2006 · 제12권 제1호저금리가 주택가격을 상승시키는가?장영길한국부동산분석학회 · 부동산학연구2017 · 제23권 제1호

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