주택담보대출과 주가가 대도시권 아파트가격에 미친 영향에 관한 연구 - 글로벌 금융위기 이후를 중심으로-
Study on Impact of Mortgage and Stock Prices on Housing Price in the Metropolitan Area - Focus on period after global financial crisis -
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초록
This study has empirically analyzed the dynamic impact of mortgage and stock prices on housing market,using Vector Auto Regression Model and monthly data from September 2008 to November 2013, a periodright after the global financial crisis. The impact on housing market market was analyzed by establishinghousing finance-related variables as mortgage payments and mortgage rates by region, and stock prices asthe composite price index of stocks. Also, the correlation between loan demand and housing market wasexamined, given the loan demand as to independent variables. The empirical analysis results are as follows. There were differences in the mortgage payments depending on the region, and some areas showed theopposite sign. As for the composite price index of stocks, it was in line with the housing sales prices. Itobviously indicates that consumers who have assumed that further price increase in the housing market isunlikely due to the global financial crisis are reluctant to make purchases. Therefore, the government needsto establish and take various mid-to long-term market stimulus measures such as lowering the interestrates to stimulate the housing market.
Abstract
This study has empirically analyzed the dynamic impact of mortgage and stock prices on housing market,using Vector Auto Regression Model and monthly data from September 2008 to November 2013, a periodright after the global financial crisis. The impact on housing market market was analyzed by establishinghousing finance-related variables as mortgage payments and mortgage rates by region, and stock prices asthe composite price index of stocks. Also, the correlation between loan demand and housing market wasexamined, given the loan demand as to independent variables. The empirical analysis results are as follows. There were differences in the mortgage payments depending on the region, and some areas showed theopposite sign. As for the composite price index of stocks, it was in line with the housing sales prices. Itobviously indicates that consumers who have assumed that further price increase in the housing market isunlikely due to the global financial crisis are reluctant to make purchases. Therefore, the government needsto establish and take various mid-to long-term market stimulus measures such as lowering the interestrates to stimulate the housing market.
참고문헌 (33)
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