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현재 편향과 고정금리-변동금리 주택담보대출 선택

Present Bias and the Choice Between Fixed Rate Mortgage (FRM) and Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM)

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초록

Purpose - This study aims to develop a theoretical model exploring how present bias influences the choice between fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) and adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). Design/methodology/approach - The model considers a two-period, discrete choice between FRM and ARM, factoring in present bias, limited attention, and expectations for future policies that could convert FRM to ARM. Findings - Present bias tends to drive borrowers toward ARM, which often offers a lower initial interest rate. Limited attention and expectations for future policy changes further encourage this present-focused decision. Together, these biases can lead to overconcentration in one type of mortgage, resulting in ex-post losses for borrowers. Research implications/originality - The findings suggest that government policies may distort risk preferences and interfere with borrowers’ decision-making. To mitigate borrower failure, the government should focus on improving financial literacy and managing expectations regarding future policy changes.

Abstract

Purpose - This study aims to develop a theoretical model exploring how present bias influences the choice between fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) and adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM). Design/methodology/approach - The model considers a two-period, discrete choice between FRM and ARM, factoring in present bias, limited attention, and expectations for future policies that could convert FRM to ARM. Findings - Present bias tends to drive borrowers toward ARM, which often offers a lower initial interest rate. Limited attention and expectations for future policy changes further encourage this present-focused decision. Together, these biases can lead to overconcentration in one type of mortgage, resulting in ex-post losses for borrowers. Research implications/originality - The findings suggest that government policies may distort risk preferences and interfere with borrowers’ decision-making. To mitigate borrower failure, the government should focus on improving financial literacy and managing expectations regarding future policy changes.

참고문헌 (13)

  1. 고성수, "국내 주택금융시장의 모기지 선택에 관한 연구", 부동산학연구, 17(2), pp.59~75 (2011)
  2. 곽민주, "주택담보대출 상품의 정보탐색 경로와 정보탐색 경로 결정요인에 관한 연구", Financial Planning Review, 11(4), pp.81~105 (2018)
  3. 김진, "서울시 은행권 주택담보대출에서 소비자의 금융조건 선택", 부동산학연구, 21(2), pp.41~56 (2015)
  4. 마승렬, "고정금리와 변동금리 모기지론의 금전적 가치 비교에 관한 연구", 부동산연구, 20(1), pp.181~204 (2010)
  5. 민인식, "고정금리-변동금리 모기지 선택의 결정요인에 관한 미시적 실증분석", 주택연구, 20(4), pp.47~79 (2012)
  6. 박성욱, "주택담보대출 차입자의 금리선택에 관한 연구", 금융연구, 23(2), pp.133~151 (2009)
  7. 유소이, "변동금리 및 고정금리 주택모기지 선택의 영향요인 분석 : 한국과 미국 소비자 비교", 소비문화연구, 18(1), pp.155~179 (2015)
  8. Alm, J., "Consumer Demand for Adjustable Rate Mortgages", Housing Fin. Rev, 6, pp.1~16 (1987)
  9. Baesel, J. B., "The Allocation of Risk: Some Implications of Fixed versus Index-linked Mortgages", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 15(2), pp.457~468 (1980)
  10. Campbell, J. Y., "Household Risk Management and Optimal Mortgage Choice", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), pp.1449~1494 (2003)
  11. Sa-Aadu, J., "Differentiated Contracts, Heterogeneous Borrowers, and the Mortgage Choice Decision", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 27(2), pp.498~510 (1995)
  12. Smith, D. J., "The Borrower's Choice between Fixed and Adjustable Rate Loan Contracts", Real Estate Economics, 15(2), pp.110~116 (1987)
  13. Statman, M., "Fixed Rate or Index-linked Mortgages from the Borrower's Point of View : A Note", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 17(3), pp.451~457 (1982)

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