산업구조 변화가 경제성장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구: 성장수렴 가설 검정을 중심으로
A Study on the Industrial Structure Change and Economic Growth under Testing for the Growth Convergence Hypothesis in Product Space
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본 연구는 1982년부터 2011년까지의 무역 및 성장변수 관련 거시 자료를 이용하여산업구조 선진화라는 변수를 도입한 경제성장 모형을 추정하였다. 전통적 솔로우 변수는 물론, 인적자본, 산업구조 선진화 등의 성장요인이 경제성장에 미치는 영향과 베타성장수렴 가설에 대한 검정도 실시하였다. 특히 상품공간에서의 네트워크 산업집중도는 산업구조 선진화라는 성장요인으로 해석될 수 있기 때문에 이를 추가로 도입하여기존의 성장회귀모형을 확장하였다. 분석 결과, 고정효과 및GMM 모형 하에서 네트워크 산업집중도가 경제성장에 미치는 영향은 통계적으로 유의하게 양(+)의 부호를 갖는탄력성이 추정되었다. 네트워크 산업집중도는 베타 성장수렴 속도에도 각기 다른 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 분석 결과는 이론적으로 상품공간과 신성장이론을지지하는 증거이며, 실증적으로 국제분업체제에 순응하면서 고도화된 제조업 품목의생산을 집중하거나 수출을 지향하는 산업구조 선진화가 경제성장에도 유효한 영향을미치게 된다는 정책적 시사점을 보여준다
Abstract
This paper analyze the augmented solow-type model including the traditional slow-type variable (capital, labor), human capital index, network industrial centrality measure in product space using a dynamic panel regression with fixed effects. In addition, we test for the growth convergence hypothesis under this augmented solow-type model. Especially, the solow-type growth model is further augmented and estimated to include the network industrial centrality in addition to proxy for structure transformation in product space, i.e., industrial structure advancement in manufacturing sector. The empirical results based on the dynamic panel model with fixed effect and estimated by generalized method of moments illustrates that the estimated elasticity of network industrial centrality measure in product space is significantly positive in almost all of the model specifications as theoretically expected and have a effect on the -convergence rate in a different manner. Also, with these results, we carefully predict that the industrial structure advancement in manufacturing sector has more significantly and effectively effects on economic growth and supports the product space and new growth theory.
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