상품공간에 의한 동태적 산업분류 및상품공간 중력모형
Dynamic Industrial Classification and the Gravity Model in Product Space
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본 논문은 상품공간의 관점에서 상품 중심성과 그 추세를 분석하고, 상품 중심성추세에 따른 동태적 산업분류를 제시하였다. 이어서 국제무역의 중력모형에 상품공간의 상품 중심성 개념을 도입한 상품공간 중력모형을 제시하고, 한․중․일 3 국에 대하여 실증 분석하였다. 국제무역에서의 개별 산업이 차지하는 중요도를 나타내는 상품 중심성이 1991년부터 2014년까지 24년 간 어떻게 변해왔는지를261개 품목에 대하여 실증 분석한 결과 약 30% 정도 품목에서 상품 중심성의 장기적 추세에 큰 변화가 있었던 것으로 나타났다. 또한 한․중․일 3국에 대한 상품공간 중력모형의 실증분석을 통하여 상품 중심성의 증가가 수출 증가에 통계적으로 유의하게 양(+)의 영향을 미친다는 것을 보임으로써 상품공간 구조가 국제무역흐름이나 산업구조를 결정하는데 있어서 중요한 요인임을 보였다. 특히 한국의 산업구조는 중국이나 일본에 비하여 상품 중심성을 높이는 방향으로 산업구조변화가 진행되어 온 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This paper investigates the global trend of centrality measure in product space and develops dynamic industrial classification based on this measure. In addition, the paper analyzes the gravity model with product-level heterogeneity which originates from centrality measure in product space and examines how much the centrality measure explains the export structure of Korea, China and Japan. Empirical results show that over 30% of products in product space have significantly changed their centrality in the past 24 years. Also, the empirical results based on the gravity model in product space illustrates that the estimated elasticity of centrality measure, the major concept of product space, is significantly positive in all of the model specifications as theoretically expected and plays an important role in determining trade flows in global market and the export structure in the country level. These evidence illustrates that Korea has successfully achieved the structural transformation in manufacturing industries more timely than China and Japan as the global trend of export sophistication in product space has changed. Also, with these results, we carefully predict that the structural transformation in product space play a key role in economic growth of the manufacturing countries.
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