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수출주도전략 이후의 경제성장

Change From Export-Led Growth Strategy

김병우
한국국제경제학회 (The Korea International Economic Association)|2021.06|국제경제연구 (KUKJE KYUNGJE YONGU)|제27권 제2호|pp. 63-96|DOI 10.17298/kky.2021.27.2.003

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키워드

Per Capita Income무역집약도1인당소득수입집약도공적분회귀Trade IntensityImport IntensityCointegration Regression
주제분류경제학

초록

본 연구는 한국의 수출지향적 발전전략 이후의 길을 모색한다. 개방으로부터의 효율성 및 학습효과는 한계에 봉착한 상황이다. 우리는 중간재 가용범위를 증가시키는 인적자본을 축적할 수 있다. 이는 제품다양성 제고를 위한 수입의 역할을 대체할 수 있다. 실증분석을 통해 소득성장에 미치는 한계효과는 인적자본의 경우가 기술전파의 경우보다 더 크다는 사실을 발견하였다. 또한, 개방경제로부터의 지식전파 효과를 추정하였다. 공적분회귀식은 통계적 유의성을 보여준다. 우리는 한국의 탄력성 추정치가 상대적으로 크다는 사실을 발견하였다. 또한, 여구개발에 의한 생산성향상의 중요성은 기술이전의 것보다 크게 나타났다.

Abstract

This study seeks to find a way beyond the past export-led development strategy of Korea. The efficiency and learning by doing effects from openness came to a limit. We can accumulate human capital which can increase the range of technology (intermediate goods) available by technology transfer. This method can substitute the role of import that increases product variety. From, empirical analysis such as ARDL model, we find that the marginal effect of human capital on income growth is higher than that of technological transfer. And, we estimated the knowledge spillover effects from economic openness and international trade by foreign R&D capital variable. Cointegration regression result shows significant transfer of knowledge. But, we can find that though the estimated elasticity is relatively higher in the case of Korea, the importance of TFP by (domestic) R&D innovation for growth have been much higher than that of transfer.

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