국가의 취약성과 경제성장
Fragility of states and economic growth
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연구는 취약국가지수를 이용하여 국가의 취약성이 경제성장과 어떤 관계를 가지고 있는지를 분석하였다. 취약국가지수를 구성하고 있는 12개 지표를포함하여 164개 국가를 대상으로 2006년부터 2019년까지 성장회귀분석을 실시하였다. 이어서 선진국, 개발도상국, 취약국가로 구분하여 분석하였다. 분석결과, 선진국, 개발도상국, 취약국가 별로 경제성장에 유의한 결과를 보이는 취약성 지표가 다르게 나타났다. 선진국의 경우에 경제지표와 정치지표의 경제성장효과가 큰 것으로 나타났다. 개발도상국에서도 정치지표는 경제성장과 연관이 높은 것으로 나타난 반면에 사회지표는 유의한 결과를 얻지 못하였다. 취약국가의 경우 12개 지표 중 3개의 지표(계층갈등, 인적자원유출, 인구통계학적압박)만이 유의한 결과를 보였는데 이 3개의 지표들은 개발도상국 결과에서는모두 유의하지 않았다. 또한 취약국가에서는 정치지표가 경제성장효과를 가져오지 못한 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
This study analyzed the relationship between fragility of state and economic growth using the Fragile State Index. Growth regression analysis was conducted from 2006 to 2019 for 164 countries including 12 indicators constituting the Fragile State Index. Then, developed countries, developing countries, and fragile states were analyzed. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the fragility index showing a significant result for economic growth was different for each developed country, developing country, and fragile state. In the case of developed countries, the economic growth effect of economic and political indicators was found to be large. Even in developing countries, political indicators were found to be highly correlated with economic growth, whereas social indicators did not yield significant results. In the case of fragile states, only 3 (Group Grievance, Human Flight and Brain Drains, Demographic Pressures) out of 12 indicators showed significant results, but these 3 indicators were not significant in the results of developing countries. In addition, it was found that political indicators did not have an effect on economic growth in fragile states.
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