소득불평등이 경제성장에 미치는 효과에 대한 실증분석:임계(threshold) 효과를 중심으로
An Empirical Investigation of the Threshold Effects of Income Inequality on Economic Growth
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본 연구는 동태 임계패널모형(dynamic threshold panel model)을 이용하여 소득불평등이 경제성장에 미치는 효과를 분석하였다. 이를 위해 53개국으로 구성된 균형(balanced)패널 자료를 구축하였다. 선형회귀모형을 가정한 추정에서는 불평등의 확대는 경제성장에 긍정적인 효과를 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 반면, 동태 임계패널모형은 다양한 추정결과를 제시한다. 지니계수를 임계변수로 사용한 추정결과에서는 소득불평등의 효과가 성장 약화적(weakening)이며 그 같은 효과가 불평등이 높은 영역에서 더욱 강화되는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 소득 영역별 추정에서는 고소득 영역에서 불평등의 효과가 성장 강화적(enhancing), 저소득 영역에서는 성장약화적인 것으로 나타났다. 또한 체제가 안정적일 때 불평등의 성장 강화적 효과가 더욱 확대되는 것으로 나타났다. 이 같은 결과는 소득불평등이 경제성장에 미치는 효과는 각 국가의 경제, 정치, 사회 상황에 따라 따를 수 있는 것을 의미한다.
Abstract
Using a dynamic threshold panel model, this study examines the effects of income inequality on economic growth. For that, a balanced panel data of 53 countries is constructed. Estimation using a conventional linear model indicates that higher inequality is growth-enhancing. However, estimation using the dynamic threshold panel model yields various results. Higher inequality is growth- weakening when Gini index is used as a threshold variable and the effect is more vivid in the regime of high inequality. One the other hand, the effect of inequality is growth-weakening in the regime of low income, but it is growth-enhancing in the regime of high income. Finally, the growth-enhancing effects of inequality become stronger in the regime of institutional stability. These results imply that the growth effects of income inequality may differ across countries depending on economic, social, or political status of each country.
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