중국 회색지대 전략의 향후 전망과 정책적 함의: 미 · 중간 국가이익의 차이를 중심으로
Future Prospects and Policy Implications of China’s Gray Zone Strategy: Focusing on the Difference in National Interests between the US and China
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초록
중국의 부상은 세계화와 미국의 자유주의적 국제주의 시각에서 이루어진 관여정책을 기반으로 이루어졌다. 하지만 최근 중국이 지역 패권과 세계적으로 영향권을 확대하기 위해서 회색지대 전략과 일대일로를 추구하면서, 중국의 급격한 경제성장과 이를 기반으로 하는 군비강화는 최근 전세계적인 화두가 되고 있다. 따라서 중국의 이런 전략 중 특히 회색지대 전략은 향후에도 성공적일 것인지 그렇지 못하다면 왜 그런 지를 연구하였다. 우선 국가이익의 우선순위와 그것을 추구하는 방식과 수단을 포함하는 대전략 개념을 이용하고자 한다. 이를 통해 미국과 중국의 대전략간 관계가 양립 불가능함을 알 수 있다. 현재 미국은 이전과 같이 일방적인 군사 행동이나, 견제 행동에는 한계가 있다. 하지만 냉전이래 구축된 동맹 네트워크 그리고 최근 중국의 강압적 행동과 코로나에 대한 미숙한 대처로 인한 세계적인 부정적인 평가로 미국에 우호적인 분위기가 있다. 그런데 중국의 회색지대 전략이 성공하기 위해서는 미국에 대한 상대적 권력을 얻고, 전쟁이 발발해서는 안 되는 2가지 조건을 충족해야 한다. 그러나 미국은 견제를 추구할 것이기 때문에, 아무리 적은 ‘상대적 권력’일지라도 양보하지 않으려고 할 것이다. 따라서 회색지대 전략 성공을 위한 2가지 조건 모두를 충족하기는 힘들 것이다.
Abstract
Although China's rise was based on globalization and the US's policy of engagement from the liberal internationalist perspective. However, as China recently pursued a gray zone strategy and Belt and Road Initiative to expand regional hegemony and global influence, China's rapid economic growth and military reinforcement based on this have recently become a global topic. Therefore, I studied whether China's strategy, especially the gray zone strategy, would be successful in the future, if not, why. First, the national interest was prioritized and the concept of a grand strategy including methods and means for pursuing them was used. This shows that the relationship between the US and China's grand strategy is incompatible. And among the countries that challenged the US in history, it was found that the US pursued a policy of balancing against countries that were incompatible with US national interests. Even war could be waged. However, for China's gray zone strategy to be successful, two conditions must be met: it must gain relative power over the United States and that war must not break out. However, since the United States will abandon its policy of engagement and seek balancing, it will not concede no matter how little “relative power” it may have. Therefore, it will be difficult to satisfy both conditions for the success of the gray zone strategy. Therefore, China's gray zone strategy is highly likely to fail.
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