러시아의 공세적 대외안보정책과 함의
Russia’s Foreign Security Policy: Aggressive Strategy
0
조회
0
다운로드
4
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
이 글은 최근 푸틴 대통령의 공세적인 대외안보정책을 고찰하고자 한다. 최근러시아의 우크라이나와 시리아 군사개입과 대외적 강경정책은 국제적 우려를 낳고있다. 2014년 3월 크림병합은 서방의 강도 높은 제재를 불러일으켰고, 러시아-서방간의 관계 악화를 초래했다. 이러한 크림합병이라는 도발적 정책을 푸틴대통령이갑작스럽게 결정했다고 보기는 어렵다. 우크라이나사태와 크림합병은 러시아가 강대국의 지위를 회복하고 국제적 영향력을 회복하는 주요한 전략이다. 푸틴은 전통적영향권역인 탈소련방 지역을 재통합하는 전략을 구사하는 한편 군사력 강화를 토대로서방과 반발하는 주변국에 대해서 공세적인 태도를 취하고 있다. 이러한 푸틴의 최근 공세정책은 주변국의 움직임을 면밀히 검토하고, 그에 따른위험 부담을 계산한 대외정책의 변화라고 볼 수 있다. 따라서 러시아 대외안보정책의변화를 이해하기 위해서는 지도자 개인의 특성과 신념, 국민의 지지, 그를 뒷받침할수 있는 역량, 외부 변수 등을 종합적으로 이해해야 한다. 이 글은 근래에 발표된안보문건과 발표자료를 중심으로 러시아 공세적 대외정책의 배경과 현황 및 특성을분석해본다.
Abstract
This article examines Putin’s aggressive external security policy. The latest Russian military actions over Ukraine and Syria surprised many within the international community and reinforced growing concerns about an assertive Russia. In March 2014, the Crimea annexation triggered western sanctions, resulting in deteriorating relations between Russia and the West. It is hard to see President Putin's sudden decision to make such a provocative policy. The Ukrainian Crisis and Crimean annexation were the culmination of Russian strategy for reviving great power status and acting an influential player in the world. Putin has sought to improve the national status through Russia’s integration effort with the former Soviet Union as a traditional ‘sphere of influence’ as well as an aggressive policy towards the West and recalcitrant neighbours. Putin's recent offensive policy can be seen as a foreign policy change that closely examines the movements of the post-Soviet states and calculates the resulting risks. Therefore, in order to understand the Putin’s foreign policy changes, it is necessary to comprehensively understand the character and beliefs of the leader, the support of the people, the capacity to be backed up, and the external variables. This work analyses the external security policy by reviewing Russia’s security documents and Putin’s addresses, etc.
참고문헌 (46)
- 고상두, "러시아의 우크라이나 사태 개입요인에 관한 내용분석", 국방연구, 58(4), pp.1~31 (2015), 국가안전보장문제연구소
- 제3기 푸틴정부의 신외교안보 전략과 실제, "고재남", 외교안보연구원, ~, pp.외교안보연구원 정책연구시리즈 2016-6 (2017)
- 김경순, "비교군사전략론" (2014), 충남대학교 출판문화원
- 김성진, "러시아의 우크라이나정책과 유라시아주의", 중소연구, 39(4), pp.245~285 (2016), 아태지역연구센터
- 21세기 러시아의 동맹·우방정책의 변화와 전망, "신범식", 동아시아연구원(EAI), ~, pp.EAI NSP Report 41 (2009)
- 정희석, "푸틴정부의 대내외정책에서의 유라시아주의적 경향성 분석", 국제정치연구, 17(1), pp.88~113 (2014), 동아시아국제정치학회
- Allison, Roy, "Russian ‘Deniable Intervention’ in Ukraine: How and Why Russia Broke the Rules", International Affairs, 90(6) (2014)
- "Russian Foreign and Security Policy" (2016)[URL]
- Bernstein, Paul, "Putin’s Russia and U.S. Defense Strategy", pp.2015
- Blank, Stephen, "The End of Russian Power in Asia?", Orbis, 56(2), pp.249~266 (2012)
- Blank, Stephen, "The CSTO: Gendarme of Eurasia", Eurasia Daily Monitor, 8(176) (2011)
- Ferguson, Niall, "In decline, Putin's Russia is on its way to global irrelevance", Newsweek, ~ (2011)
- Gabuev, Alexander, "Friends with Benefits?" (2016), Carnegie Moscow Center
- Russia's Quiet Military Revolution and What Means for Europe, "Gressel, Gustav", ~, pp.Policy Brief, ECFR-143 (2015)
- Hass, Marcel de, "Russian Military Politics and Russia’s 2010 Defense Doctrine" (2011), SSI Monograph
- Herspring, Dale, "Putin’s Russia: Past Imperfect, Future Uncertain" (2003), Rowman & Littlefield Publishers Inc
- Shavkat Kasymov, "Statism in Russia: The implications for US–Russian relations", Journal of Eurasian Studies, 3(1), pp.58~68 (2012), 아태지역연구센터
- Kim, Kyung Soon, "Russian Military Transformation: Trends and Implications for East Asia", Military Affairs(e-Journal), 1(1) (2016)
- Kuchins, Andrew, "Russian Foreign Policy: Continuity Change", Washington Quarterly, 35(1) (2012)
- Laruelle, Marlene, "Russian Eurasianism: An Ideology of Empire" (2008), The Johns Hopkins University Press
- Lukyanov, Fyodor, "Putin’s Foreign Policy: the Quest to Restore Russia’s Rightful Place", Foreign Affairs, 93(3) (2016)
- McDemott, Roger, "Russia's 2015 National Security Strategy", Eurasia Daily Monitor, 13(7) (2016)
- Myth and Reality-A Net Assessment of Russia's 'Hybrid Warfare' Strategy Since the Start of 2014(part Two), "McDermott, Roger", Eurasian Daily, ~, pp.Eurasian Daily Report 11(185) (2014)
- Mearsheimer, John, "Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault: The Liberal Delusions That Provoked Putin", Foreign Affairs, 93(5) (2014)
- "The Challenge of Russia’s Decline" (2015)[URL]
- Rumer, Eugene B., "Russia: Power in Weakness?", The Washington Quarterly, 27(1) (2003)
- Saradzhyan, Simon, "Is Russia Declining?", Demokratizatsiya, 24(3), pp.399~418 (2016)
- Spechler, Dina Rome, "Russian Foreign Policy during the Putin Presidency:the Impact of Competing Approaches", Problems of Post-Communism, 57(5), pp.35~50 (2010)
- Trenin, Dmitri, "The Revival of the Russian Military: How Moscow Reloaded", Foreign Affairs, 95(3), pp.23~29 (2016)
- Tichy, Lukas, "Security and Foreign Policy of Dmitry Medvedev in the Period 2008-2012", Journal of Slavic Military Studies, 27, pp.549~551 (2012)
- "Russian Nationalism and Vladimir Putin's Russia. PONARS Policy Memo 151" (2000)[URL]
- Van Herpen, Marcel H., "Putin’s Wars: The Rise of Russia’s New Imperialism" (2014), Rowman & Littlefield
- "Can We Manage a Declining Russia?" (2011)[URL]
- Wong, Chun Han, "Chinese, Russian Presidents Criticize West for Weakening Global ‘Strategic Stability’", The Wall Street Journal, 6, pp.26~ (2016)
- "Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation" (2013)[URL]
- "Foreign Policy Concept of the Russian Federation" (2016)[URL]
- Military Doctrine, "Rossiskaya gazeta", ~ (2014)
- "Russian National Security Strategy" (2015)[URL]
- "Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly" (2015)[URL]
- "동아일보", ~
- "Interfax", ~
- "Itar-tass", ~
- "Izvestia", ~
- "Russia 포커스", ~
- "The New York Times", ~
- "The Washington Times", ~