코로나19 사태에 따른 EU 회원국의 공동국채 발행에 관한 논쟁: 유로본드의 사례를 통해 본 결정요인 실증분석
Exploring a Common Debt Instruments in COVID-19 Pandemic: Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Support to Eurobond
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초록
이 연구는 EU 회원국의 공동채권 발행에 대한 찬반변화와 회원국 간의 이견대립 및 절충과정을 유로존 위기와 코로나19 사태를 통해 분석하고, 공동채권 도입에 대한 찬성여론에 대한 실증분석을 실시하였다. 공동채권 발행에 대한 주장은 주로 큰 피해를 겪은 남부유럽 국가들에 의해 제기되었고, 북부유럽 국가들은 이에 반해하는 입장을 보여였다. 유로존 위기 기간 중 공동채권 발행에 대한 주장은 구제기금을 확충하는 방향으로 귀결되었고, 코로나19 사태의 경우 보조금 예산의 증액과 EU 기관의 채권발행을 대폭적으로 늘리는 방향으로 절충이 이루어졌다. 공동국채에 대한 지지도를 분석한 결과 국채금리가 증가하거나 국가채무 수준이 높은 국가일수록 공동국채 발행을 지지하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 유로화 사용국의 경우 국채금리가 공동국채 발행에 대한 지지도에 미치는 영향이 더 큰 것으로 나타났다. 공동국채 발행에 대한 선호도는 국가별로 형성된 유럽통합에 대한 선호도와 자국의 실리적 필요성이 조합되어 결정된 것으로 볼 수 있다. 이 결과를 코로나19 사태의 경우에 적용할 경우에도 유사한 결과를 도출할 수 있을 것으로 예상한다. 공동국채 발행에 대한 논쟁은 유럽통합의 이상과 회원국별 실리적 계산에 따른 절충에 의해 좌우된다고 볼 수 있다.
Abstract
This article explores the discussion about common debt instruments in the Euro Area, known as Eurobond, and reviews national positions of EU Member States about an issue of Eurobond to tackle with the Euro crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. The arguments in favor of introducing a shared debt instrument were mainly advocated by the southern European countries that suffered more than other countries during the sovereign debt crisis in the Euro Area. This movement toward the debt mutualization was highly criticized by their northern neighbors led by Germany. The EU Member States found their compromise by increasing the lending capacity of the ESM. Facing the COVID-19 pandemic, joint debt instruments backed by the EU Member States have once more to the fore. Given the nature of the crisis caused by the pandemic, the idea of the so-called ‘corona bond’, once again developed by the southern countries, was more supported than before, while there were different opinions in method and scale in issuing the debt instruments. The EU Member States agreed to create the Recovery Fund, for which the financing involves the issuance of bonds backed by the EU budget. Using the survey data of Eurobarometer, this article conducts empirical tests about the determinants of support to Eurobond. Our results show that the idea of Eurobond is more supported by countries with higher public debt levels and higher yield rates of the sovereign bond. This founding confirms that countries with smaller fiscal space have a higher preference for debt mutualization. It also shows that for countries that use the euro, the yield rate of sovereign bonds has a greater impact on their support for the issue of a joint debt instrument. The preference for issuing Eurobonds depends on combining the effects of preferences for European integration determined at the national level and national interests. The discussion of Eurobonds is a good example of how the vision of European integration and practical calculations of Member States are intertwined.
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