Path Dependence In North Korean Military Negotiation Agendas
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Analyzing the agendas of the North Korean military negotiations, we see that they were varied according to situations, but their objective for negotiations toward South Korea, “maintaining the North Korean system” did not change. In the early 1990s, proposals for “important military negotiations,” such as nonaggression and disarmament were mainly on the table, but they used to end up as declaratory military issues showing the characteristics of pseudo-military negotiations. However, in the early 2000s, such general military negotiations as connecting railways and roads and building military confidence were proposed and carried out to make them look like realistic negotiations, though they were still locked in the box of maintaining the regime. Therefore, the change was not in the character of the negotiations, but simply the negotiation items varied in favor of the situations in order to achieve the goal of “protecting the system.” As Thelen pointed out, the change was not targeted for the core element of maintaining the North Korean regime. Instead, the change was made in the military negotiation agendas in order to secure the regime in terms of the North’s strategy toward South Korea’s negotiation, thereby keeping up its path dependence.
Abstract
Analyzing the agendas of the North Korean military negotiations, we see that they were varied according to situations, but their objective for negotiations toward South Korea, “maintaining the North Korean system” did not change. In the early 1990s, proposals for “important military negotiations, ” such as nonaggression and disarmament were mainly on the table, but they used to end up as declaratory military issues showing the characteristics of pseudo-military negotiations. However, in the early 2000s, such general military negotiations as connecting railways and roads and building military confidence were proposed and carried out to make them look like realistic negotiations, though they were still locked in the box of maintaining the regime. Therefore, the change was not in the character of the negotiations, but simply the negotiation items varied in favor of the situations in order to achieve the goal of “protecting the system.” As Thelen pointed out, the change was not targeted for the core element of maintaining the North Korean regime. Instead, the change was made in the military negotiation agendas in order to secure the regime in terms of the North’s strategy toward South Korea’s negotiation, thereby keeping up its path dependence.
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