The Six-Party Talks at the Cross-roads: Implications from Eight Years of Experience

Abstract

The objective of this article is to analyze the Six-Party Talks process using James Mahoney’s path dependence theory as its theoretical framework. The “path” of the Six-Party Talks process will be divided into two types of sequences to explain the timing and the events of each sequence. The sequences include various phases of the talks in process and during the period of the discontinuation of the talks. This article presents an overview of the theoretical background of path dependence theory. This article then demonstrates that path dependence theory can explain how the Six-Party Talks have been maintained and discontinued. This theoretical approach utilizes two elements for analysis: self-reinforcing sequences and negative feedback. In self-reinforcing sequences, an institutional pattern, once adopted, delivers increasing benefits with its continued adoption, and thus over time it becomes more and more difficult to transform the pattern or select previously available options, even if these alternative options would have been more “efficient.” Negative feedback is one of non-repeating sequences in a wider set of mechanisms behind path dependence. Each element can be categorized in terms of utilitarian, functional, power, and legitimation explanations. This article highlights how negative feedbacks have influenced the dynamics between the two self-reinforcing sequences that defined the process to this day. A path dependence approach to the Six-party Talks emphasizes the importance of timing in a path dependent process and the limitations of self-reinforcing sequences. Lastly, this article accounts for the limitations of path dependence theory and the current Six-Party Talks in terms of multilateralism in Northeast Asia.