A Vicious Cycle of Escalation, Negotiation and De-escalation: The United States, North Korea, Coercive Diplomacy and Denuclearization
0
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
Why have US-DPRK nuclear negotiations failed? Existing studies have focused on the failures of specific negotiations between the US and North Korea. This article presents an alternative view on the issue, utilizing coercive diplomacy to understand repeating escalation and de-escalation patterns between the US and North Korea. North Korea engages in dialogue only when the regime is threatened by the US with a credible military threat. However, as negotiations begin, de-escalation inevitably occurs, allowing North Korea to defect from negotiations. When North Korea does defect, the US cannot simply return to pre-negotiation levels of escalation because political momentum has been lost. This has resulted in a vicious cycle that has plagued the resolution of the issue.
Abstract
Why have US-DPRK nuclear negotiations failed? Existing studies have focused on the failures of specific negotiations between the US and North Korea. This article presents an alternative view on the issue, utilizing coercive diplomacy to understand repeating escalation and de-escalation patterns between the US and North Korea. North Korea engages in dialogue only when the regime is threatened by the US with a credible military threat. However, as negotiations begin, de-escalation inevitably occurs, allowing North Korea to defect from negotiations. When North Korea does defect, the US cannot simply return to pre-negotiation levels of escalation because political momentum has been lost. This has resulted in a vicious cycle that has plagued the resolution of the issue.
참고문헌 (51)
- Ahn, M. S., "North Korea’s Nuclear Policy towards the U. S. : The Bureaucratic Politics Model", North Korean Review, 6(2), pp.100~116 (2010)
- "Trump Threatens ‘Fire and Fury’Against North Korea if It Endangers U.S" (2017)[URL]
- "Releasing 3 Americans North Koreans Signal Openness to Washington" (2018)[URL]
- Bluth, C., "The United States and the Second North Korean Nuclear Crisis: Explaining the Failure of the Six Party Talks", IPRI Journal, VI(1), pp.1~20 (2006)
- "North Korea details Guam strike plan and calls Trump ‘bereft of reason’" (2017)[URL]
- Brandt-Erichsen, H., "Negotiation strategies in American-North Korean nuclear talks, 1992-2013", pp.2016
- "The 1994 North Korea Crisis:Military force a Bad Idea Then (and a Worse One Now)" (2017)[URL]
- Chinoy, M, "Meltdown: The Inside Story of the North Korea Nuclear Crisis" (2008), St Martin’s Press
- Choi, J. K., "The Perils of Strategic Patience with North Korea", The Washington Quarterly, 38(4), pp.57~72 (2015)
- "North Korean Nuclear Negotiations: 1985-2022"[URL]
- "Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy" (2022)[URL]
- "Nuclear Weapons: What Has What at a Glance" (2023)[URL]
- Delury, J., "The Disappointments of Disengagement : Assessing Obama’s North Korea Policy", Asian Perspective, 37(2), pp.149~182 (2013)
- DiFilippo, A., "Steady State : The North Korean Nuclear Issue from Bush to Obama", Asian Affairs : An American Review, 41(2), pp.56~82 (2014)
- Farago, N., "Washington’s failure to resolve the North Korean nuclear conundrum : examining two decades of US policy", International Affairs, 92(5), pp.1127~1145 (2016)
- "How Kim Jong Il Reacted to the 2003 Invasion of Iraq" (2013)[URL]
- George, A. L., "The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy" (1994), Westview Press
- George, A. L., "The Limits of Coercive Diplomacy" (1994), Westview Press
- Gettel, C., "Why North Korea will Likely Never Denuclearize", Panoply Journal, 4, pp.87~93 (2023)
- Graham, T., "Reducing Nuclear Dangers on the Korean Peninsula : Bilateral versus Multilateral Approaches", Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament, 2(1), pp.336~356 (2019)
- Harrison, S. S., "Did North Korea Cheat?", Foreign Affairs, 84(1), pp.99~110 (2005)
- "N Korea hits back at Bush’s ‘evil’ tag" (2002)[URL]
- Hayes, P., "Bush’s Bipolar Disorder and the Looming Failure of Multilateral Talks With North Korea", Arms Control Today, 33(8), pp.3~6 (2003)
- Howe, B. M., "Beyond Security towards Peace on the Korean Peninsula : Strategies for Transforming A Nuclear Conflict", The Korean Journal of Security Affairs, 17(1), pp.65~82 (2012)
- Jakobsen, P. V., "Western Use of Coercive Diplomacy after the Cold War: A Challenge for Theory and Practice" (1998), Palgrave MacMillan
- Jentleson, B. W., "Who “Won” Libya?: The ForceDiplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy", International Security, 30(3), pp.47~86 (2005)
- Jun, B. G., "Assessment of the Nuclear Program of Iran and North Korea", pp.53~64 (2023), Springer Dordrecht
- Kharchuk, S., "The “Pariah” State, Nukes & U.S. Diplomacy: Nuclear Talks with North Korea Which Failed (2009-2019)", Rocznik Bezpieczeństwa Międzynarodowego, 14(2), pp.192~213 (2020)
- Kim, J., "UN Sanctions as an Instrument of Coercive Diplomacy against North Korea", Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 26(3), pp.315~332 (2014)
- Klingner, B., "Deny, Deceive, and Delay-North Korea’s Nuclear Negotiating Strategy", The Journal of East Asian Affairs, 26(2), pp.1~24 (2012)
- Lankov, A., "Why the United States will have to accept a nuclear North Korea", The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 21(3), pp.251~264 (2009)
- Lee, I., "Rethinking Economic Sanctions on North Korea : Why Crippling Economic Sanctions Will Not Make North Korea Denuclearize", Korea Observer, 53(1), pp.47~73 (2022)
- "North Korea: 3 US aircraft carriers creating ‘worst ever’ situation" (2017)[URL]
- Levy, J. S., "Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy : The Contributions of Alexander George", Political Psychology, 29(4), pp.537~552 (2008)
- Matray, J. I., "The Failure of the Bush Administration’s North Korea Policy: A Critical Analysis", International Jornal of Korean Studies, XXVI(1), pp.140~177 (2013)
- "Washington was on brink of war with North Korea 5 years ago" (1999)[URL]
- Moon, C. I., "The Bush Doctrine and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis", Asian Perspective, 27(4), pp.9~45 (2003)
- Moore, G. J., "America’s Failed North Korea Nuclear Policy : A New Approach", Asian Perspective, 32(4), pp.9~27 (2008)
- "In U.N. speech, Trump threatens to ‘totally destroy North Korea’ and calls Kim Jong Un ‘Rocket Man’" (2017)[URL]
- "North Korea Is a Nuclear Power. Ger Used to It" (2018)[URL]
- "Interview: William Perry" (2003)[URL]
- Pritchard, C. L., "The Korean Peninsula and the role of multilateral talks", Disarmament Forum, 2, pp.25~34 (2005)
- Pritchard, C. L., "Failed diplomacy: the tragic story of how North Korea got the bomb" (2007), The Brookings Institution
- "Trump and North Korea: the perils of a pre-emptive strike" (2018)[URL]
- Sheen, S. H., "U. S. Coercive Diplomacy toward Pyongyang : Obama vs. Trump", Korean Journal of Defense Analysis, 32(4), pp.517~538 (2020)
- "Lessons from the Unhappy History of Verification in North Korea" (2018)[URL]
- Smith, M. A., "Denuclearising North Korea : Evaluating the United States’ Culpability for Failed Agreements, 1993-2008", Diplomacy &Statecraft, 30(3), pp.556~575 (2019)
- Stanton, J., "Getting Tough on North Korea", Foreign Affairs, 96(3), pp.65~75 (2017)
- "What are Trump’s military options in North Korea" (2017)[URL]
- Stephan, H., "Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the Case of North Korea" (2017), Stanford University Press
- "A post-launch examination of the Unha-2. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists" (2009)[URL]
