기후변화가 출생결과에 미치는 영향: 1973-2000년 미국사례
The Effect of Climate Change on Birth Weight Evidence from 1973–2000 U.S. Data
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최근에 지구의 평균기온을 측정한 결과 과거보다 기온이 상승하였다. 이러한 현상이 현재 추세로 진행될 경우 지구의 기온은 약 4.8℃상승할 것이고 강수량은 6.2%증가할 것으로 예측되었다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 1973년에서 2000년까지 미국의 출생기록, 기온, 강수량 자료를 바탕으로 기후변화가 출생아 체중에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 각 년도의 월별 주(州) 평균 출생아 체중을 종속변수로 하고 독립변수는 임신기간별 평균기온과 누적강수량, 여러 가지 산모의 생물학적 변수와 산모의 사회적 변수를 넣어 최소자승법(OLS)을 사용하여 분석하였다. 분석결과 백인의 경우 임신 2기에 평균 기온과 평균 출생아 체중간의 음의 관계를 보였고 평균 기온과 평균 저체중아 비율은 양의 관계를 보였다. 백인과 흑인을 제외한 다른 인종 또한 임신 2기에 평균기온과 평균 출생아 체중 간의 백인보다 더 큰 음의 관계를 보였다. 저체중아 출생의 경우 정상 출생아보다 사망률도 높고 인지 발달도 낮으며 성인이 되어서 임금도 낮게 조사되었다. 이는 저체중아가 많아 질 경우 많은 의료비용으로 인한 경제적 손실과 낮은 인적 자원으로 인한 국가적 후생손실을 가져오기 때문에 경제학적으로 중요한 문제이다. 따라서 이러한 결과를 바탕으로 앞으로 정부는 장기적인 측면에서 이를 예방하기 위한 정책과 지원방안을 모색해야 할 것이다.
Abstract
The global average temperature has risen substantially in recent years. At this rate,it is expected that Earth’s temperature and the amount of precipitation will increase by 4.8℃ and 6.2%, respectively. Thus, this study analyzed the effect of climate change on birth weight by considering birth record, temperature, and precipitation data of the United States from 1973 to 2000. The dependent variable in this study was the monthly average birth weight for each state, and the independent variables were the average temperature and accumulated amount of precipitation for each pregnancy period, as well as biological and social variables of pregnant women. This data was regressed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. Regression results showed that for white women there was a negative relationship between average temperature and average birth weight in the second trimester, while the relationship between average temperature and average rate of low birth weight was positive. For races other than white and black, the results showed a stronger negative relationship between temperature and the rate of low birth weight. Compared to normally born children, low-birth-weight infants were found to have a higher risk of dying, lower levels of cognitive development, and even received lower wages as adults. This has a significant economic implication: if the number of low-birth-weight infants increases,the cost of medical welfare will rise, subsequently decreasing the quality of human resources available, and causing social welfare to suffer. This paper suggests that there is a need for the various government policies to be formulated with a long-term perspective in order to prevent the possible difficulties facing national welfare.
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