지구온난화가 가정부문 에너지 소비량에 미치는 영향 분석: 전력수요를 중심으로
An Analysis of the Impact of Global Warming on Residential Energy Consumption: Focused on the Case of Electricity Consumption
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초록
지구온난화에 따른 기후변화로 인해 평균기온이 상승하고 있으며, 이러한 추세는 앞으로도 계속될 것으로 전망되고 있다. 기후변화는 생태계뿐만 아니라 사회의 광범위한 부문에 영향을 미치고 있으므로 그 효과를 분석하여 대응할 필요가 있다. 본 연구는 지구온난화가 가정부문 전력수요에 미치는 영향을 장⋅단기로 나누어 분석하기 위해 ARDL모형과 오차수정모형을 이용하였으며, 기후변수로 냉방 및 난방도일지수를 사용했다. 분석 결과, 가정용 전력수요는 냉방도일에 유의하게 영향을 받았으나, 난방도일에는 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 냉방도일지수의 탄력성은 장기에 0.35, 단기에 0.12로 추정되어, 가정용 전력수요에 미치는 영향은 단기보다 장기적으로 더 큰 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
The annual average temperature has increased because of climate change due to global warming. This constant rise in temperature is expected to continue. Climatic change can affect social and economic features including energy consumption. This paper analyzes how global warming makes an effect on residential electricity demand. The long and short-run demands for residential electricity were estimated with the ARDL model and Error correction model. The results show that CDD(Cooling Degree Days) variables significantly have an effect on residential electricity demand. But electricity demand is not influenced by HDD(Heating Degree Days). If 1% of CDD increase, the residential electricity consumption will rise 0.35% in the long-run and 0.11% in the short-run. The effect of CDD on the residential electricity demand in the long-run is larger than in the short-run.
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