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기후변화가 1인당 지역생산에 미치는 영향- 한국 광역시도 패널자료를 이용한 실증분석

Climate Change and Per Capita Gross Regional Domestic Product: Empirical evidence using metropolitan and provincial data of Korea

김덕파
한국경제의 분석패널 (Panel for Korean Economic Analysis)|2023.12|한국경제의 분석 (Journal of Korean Economic Analysis)|제29권 제3호|pp. 59-91|DOI 10.22823/jkea.29.3.202312.59

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키워드

기후변화trend지구온난화climate changecycleglobal warming추세순환변동지역내 총생산gross regional domestic production
주제분류경제학

초록

광역시도별 1인당 지역내 총생산과 연평균 기온의 패널 자료를 이용해 기온의 상승이 생산에 미치는 한계효과를 추정하였다. 기본적인 선형모형을 추정한 결과 우리나라 전체적으로 기온의 생산에 대한 영향은 통계적으로 유의하지 않았다. 반면, 비선형 모형을 추정한 결과 한계효과가 대략 13℃를 임계점으로 양에서 음으로 전환되는 것으로 나타났고, 한계효과의 지역적 이질성을 허용하는 모형을 추정한 결과 인천, 경기, 강원 등 중부지방에서는 대체로 양의 효과가 부산, 제주 등 남부지방에서는 대체로 음의 효과가 있었던 것으로 나타났다. 본 추정 결과는 앞으로 우리나라에서 온난화가 지속되는 경우 중부지방에서 한계효과가 곧 음으로 전환되고 남부지방에서는 음의 한계효과가 확대될 가능성이 크다는 점을 시사한다.

Abstract

This paper estimates the marginal effect of mean annual temperature on per capita gross regional domestic product (GRDP) using panel data of 7 metropolitan areas and 9 provinces in Korea. When the marginal effect is assumed to be a constant, it is not significant statistically, which implies that mean annual temperature has had no overall effect on GRDP. On the other hand, when the marginal effect is assumed to be dependent on the level of temperature, the estimated marginal effect, which is statistically significant, switches from negative to positive at the threshold of 13℃. In addition, when the marginal effect is allowed to be heterogeneous across regions by an interaction term between mean annual temperature and regional mean temperature, it is positive in central regions with relatively lower mean annual temperatures while it is negative in southern regions with relatively higher mean annual temperatures. The estimation results also imply that, with the ongoing warming trend, the positive marginal effect in central regions will switch to negative in the near future and the negative marginal effect in southern regions will increase in magnitude.

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