최근 기후특성을 고려한 설계홍수량 분석 및 정책적 평가 - 용인시 관내 하천을 중심으로 -
Analysis and Policy Evaluation of Design Flood discharge Considering Recent Climate Characteristics: A Case Study of Yongin City
1
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
In Korea, major flood measures include establishing and implementing river master plans. However, the execution rate is insufficient compared to the plans in most areas. Moreover, due to climate change, rainfall patterns are changing, and urban development is increasing the risk of flooding. Therefore, in this study, we calculated the design flood discharge considering recent changes in climate characteristics for areas that may need updates to their river master plans. This study employed a runoff model based on the HEC-1 model which was built upon a reliable model showing over 80% correlation with observation data. Our results observed increases in the design flood discharge by approximately 7.3% in Gyungan basin, 31.3% in Cheongmi, 39% in Osan, 20.4% in Jinwi, 26.4% in Tan, and 27.3% in Han, compared to the previously announced design flood discharge. This study suggests that local governments may need to recognize the severity of the climate crisis, make efforts to increase the execution rate of maintenance projects, and periodically manage the design flood discharge.
Abstract
In Korea, major flood measures include establishing and implementing river master plans. However, the execution rate is insufficient compared to the plans in most areas. Moreover, due to climate change, rainfall patterns are changing, and urban development is increasing the risk of flooding. Therefore, in this study, we calculated the design flood discharge considering recent changes in climate characteristics for areas that may need updates to their river master plans. This study employed a runoff model based on the HEC-1 model which was built upon a reliable model showing over 80% correlation with observation data. Our results observed increases in the design flood discharge by approximately 7.3% in Gyungan basin, 31.3% in Cheongmi, 39% in Osan, 20.4% in Jinwi, 26.4% in Tan, and 27.3% in Han, compared to the previously announced design flood discharge. This study suggests that local governments may need to recognize the severity of the climate crisis, make efforts to increase the execution rate of maintenance projects, and periodically manage the design flood discharge.
참고문헌 (21)
- Janizadeh, S., "Mapping the spatial and temporal variability of flood hazard affected by climate and land-use changes in the future", Journal of Environmental Management, 298(15), pp.113551~ (2021)
- Jung, H. J., "Improved practical methods for considering climate change in design flood estimation", Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 22(6), pp.301~309 (2022)
- Khan, I., "Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future", Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(23), pp.29720~29731 (2021)
- Kim, Y. J., "Application of the HEC-HMS model for prediction of future rainfall runoff in the Daecheong Dam basin of the Geum River", Journal of Climate Change Research, 11(6-1), pp.609~619 (2020)
- Lee, B. R., "Analysis of urban runoff discharge characteristics affected by climate change and urbanization : case on Bokdae-dong basin", Journal of The Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation, 19(3), pp.41~46 (2019)
- MOCT(Ministry Of Construction & Transportation), "Guidelines for Investing and Evaluating Public Facilities Development Project", ~ (2004)
- MOE(Ministry of Environment), "Guidelines for the Establishment of River Basic Plans", ~ (2019)
- MOE(Ministry of Environment), "List of Rivers in Korea", ~ (2021)
- MOE(Ministry of Environment), "Guidelines for the Establishment of River Basic Plans", ~ (2023)
- The 2020 Annual Natural Disaster Report, "MOIS(Ministry of the Interior and Safety)", ~ (2021)
- The 2022 Annual Natural Disaster Report, "MOIS(Ministry of the Interior and Safety)", ~ (2023)
- MOLIT(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport), "Guidelines for the Establishment of River Basic Plans", ~ (2015)
- Development of Advanced Technology for Korean-Style Hydrological Analysis, "MOLIT(Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport)", ~ (2017)
- Flood Control Master Plan for Han River, "MOLTMA(Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs)", ~ (2008)
- Improvement of Probability Rainfall Depth and Complementary Research, "MOLTMA(Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs)", ~ (2011)
- MOLTMA(Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs), "Guidelines for Design Flood Quantile", ~ (2012)
- Moriasi, D. N., "Hydrologic and water quality models : Performance measures and evaluation criteria", Transactions of the ASABE, 58(6), pp.1763~1785 (2015)
- Park, J. Y., "The flood management in the Era of Climate Crisis", Water for Future, 55(3), pp.35~45 (2022)
- Sim, G. S., "Development of river function assessment technology for effective river planning and management", Water for Future, 52(11), pp.46~52 (2019)
- Wasko, C., "Evidence of shorter more extreme rainfalls and increased flood variability under climate change", Journal of Hydrology, 603(B), pp.126994~ (2021)
- The Second Regional Hazard Mitigation Plan in Yongin City, "Yongin City", ~ (2020)