기후변화 및 토지이용변화 시나리오를 고려한 황구지천 유역의 설계홍수량 평가
Design Flood Estimation in the Hwangguji River Watershed under Climate and Land Use Changes Scenario
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참고문헌
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초록
Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme floodexceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected bytwo main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should beconsidered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land usechange scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects(CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floodsof 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulationdescribed that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changesin design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligiblebecause the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.
Abstract
Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme floodexceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected bytwo main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should beconsidered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land usechange scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects(CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floodsof 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulationdescribed that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changesin design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligiblebecause the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.
참고문헌 (21)
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