기후변화와 강우분포 및 CN에 따른 미래 홍수량 평가
Assessment of Future Flood According to Climate Change, Rainfall Distribution and CN
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초록
According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However,due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods’ volume by using climatechange scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distributionand new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying themodified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climatechange was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic ModelingSystem) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volumeincreased by 627 m3/s (15%) and 523 m3/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 m3/s (3.76%)on a 200-yr frequency and 171 m3/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 m3/s (0.30%)on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 m3/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made theflood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.
Abstract
According to the standard guidelines of design flood (MLTM, 2012; MOE, 2019), the design flood is calculated based on past precipitation. However,due to climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze future floods’ volume by using climatechange scenarios. Meanwhile, the standard guideline was revised by MOE (Ministry of Environment) recently. MOE proposed modified Huff distributionand new CN (Curve Number) value of forest and paddy. The objective of this study was to analyze the change of flood volume by applying themodified Huff and newly proposed CN to the probabilistic precipitation based on SSP and RCP scenarios. The probabilistic rainfall under climatechange was calculated through RCP 4.5/8.5 scenarios and SSP 245/585 scenarios. HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - Hydrologic ModelingSystem) was simulated for evaluating the flood volume. When RCP 4.5/8.5 scenario was changed to SSP 245/585 scenario, the average flood volumeincreased by 627 m3/s (15%) and 523 m3/s (13%), respectively. By the modified Huff distribution, the flood volume increased by 139 m3/s (3.76%)on a 200-yr frequency and 171 m3/s (4.05%) on a 500-yr frequency. The newly proposed CN made the future flood value increase by 9.5 m3/s (0.30%)on a 200-yr frequency and 8.5 m3/s (0.25%) on a 500-yr frequency. The selection of climate change scenario was the biggest factor that made theflood volume to transform. Also, the impact of change in Huff was larger than that of CN about 13-16 times.
참고문헌 (17)
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